BooneWX

It happened but it wasn’t a major or even moderate event. Back in late Dec when the models were showing those absurdly cold temps at this date, the TPV lobe that broke off was modeled to be just south of Hudson Bay. Unfortunately - (or fortunately), the Pacific jet gave the lobe a punch that sent it back north.

Soon…(maybe) .

And according to Eric Webb, the airmass is starting at a balmy -40C as it exits Siberia

17 for a low and we may have something to track again this week

Man there’s just something about looking out the window at night with snow on the ground. It’s bright as day, tall pines casting long shadows, fire roaring.

The overrunning signal late next weekend is clear as day. We’re about to spend a week gnashing teeth on where that cold front stalls.

Just an absolutely beautiful day. It’s been so long. Little bit of melting but still plenty of spots to take my daughter sledding in the morning. Manifesting a December 2018 event. It only feels right given how cold it’s been. .

The pattern is definitely supportive but I’m taking things with a major grain of salt unless I see a 1035+ HP in the correct region. I think this pattern will favor highs in the Rockies but TBD if anything further east can pop.

In the good ole days of southern weather, yesterday was an appetizer and not the meal. Let’s see what magic we can conjure up the next 15 days. I really still want one good overrunning event with blue on the radar from Mississippi to Virginia.

Beautiful property! I hope you’re feeling better

-EPO + Phase 1 & 2. Probably all we can ask for atm.

Idk what everyone took away from this storm, but I know one thing - going forward, I’ll take the NAM suite over all other short range guidance. It was on an island of its own and absolutely nailed it from 48 hrs out. My line of thinking in future storms (sub 2 days out) will be to put 90% of my stock and expectations in the NAM solution and about 10% in things like the HRRR or FV3. The RGEM performed greatly with last weekends storm and performed horrendously with this one. Idk what to do with it yet but we’ll put it on house arrest for the time being. other things we learned: - No arctic high? Keep expectations in check. - the EURO AI didn’t perform great with amounts but nailed the track. We’ll need to consider it heavily moving forward. - Warm air advection always wins All in all, I enjoyed tracking this. In typical southeast fashion, there are haves and have nots but many of us got on the board and shook the drought early in the season. The pattern going forward favors the mid-south but let’s just see. I think we have something to track at least once more as the pattern starts to break down late month.

Synoptically weird storm. Thought about this last night… as much fun as Miller A’s can be, we’re completely dependent on a full phase, negative tilt and an anchoring high to the northeast to make it work. I’m pulling for Miller B’s from here on out. We turn our cheek to that setup (I think this storm tried to go that route) because we feel like we’ll get shorted on snow totals but honestly we’ve been nothing short of walloped by them over the past decade.

2” in the big town of Granite Falls. It wasn’t as much as I had hoped but man does it look pretty this morning.

Dumping!!

I’m patiently awaiting as well. Could be the best rates of the day.

I could’ve easily. The rates were insane when it was sleeting. I’ve only seen sleet that heavy one other time.

Moderate snow - closing in on 2 inches now

I just flipped to moderate snow, so hang on fellas

NAM 3k (all hail the king!!!!) has that band dropping 1.8” over the next few hours imby. Let’s see if it can be right again.

What’s it like down your way? Some nice returns over there

We are no longer tossing the NAM

Snow and sleet picking up here at the house. Radar continues to fill in with light returns.

HRRR shows snow building back in and surprising amount of accumulation. Not counting on the latter but idk if it’s completely over yet.

Same observation over here. Went for a walk and it’s more than diamond dust. Certainly not heavy but I think there’s a lot of low level moisture getting squeezed out. That’s why I think if we can hit those building returns to the southwest, we might be surprised.