BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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Brick’s storm survives another suite
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1050 over Iowa should do the trick. It ain’t cutting.
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Everything about this pattern screams WNC special. I’ve got a good feeling. We’ve taken some absolute hits the past few decades from this exact 500 mb pattern. You could not feasibly draw a prettier setup.
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Another thing to like is that we are seeing consistency on the modeling for the ridge out west to be oriented in a more conducive manner for ejecting that Baja low east. Last storm the pacific jet kept tilting that ridge east too much.
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This is why I’m absolutely adamant about the HP. It’s not just about the CAD, it’s about forcing the storm to not cut. Although I do think one thing we have working for us at the moment is how sharp this cold front will be and its potential position. It’s less likely to cut when it has an easy baroclinic zone to ride. Path of least resistance.
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Idc about the storm itself rn as long as it keeps showing up somewhere in the south on the model runs. All I care about is that big ass high parking itself right where it needs to be. I ain’t doing one of these in-situ messes again.
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6z GFS - rain depiction but very clear snow sounding imby. It’s below 32 until around 4k ft and even then, 35°.
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It’s not a coincidence that ensemble runs and OPs keep spitting out crippling storms every few runs. The upper air pattern is one that has given us some of our best memories. This has legs.
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yea that’s an absolutely honking signal. The type of mean we were seeing at day 9/10 with the last storm
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How could so many of you in this group doubt the southeast ridge? Have ye no faith? What a year we’re having for folks to feel more confident in the cold press over the SER getting into position.
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I recall a not so different look for the Valentine’s storm of 2014. That was an absolute crippler of a storm for western NC. .
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I like where we’re at. I’d be more frantic had we not received some snow on Friday but the pattern looks good and I’m not buying the Barney temps for one second. I’ve seen that outlook before and we nearly missed a storm entirely due to warm temps. I’ve seen others point this out and it’s true, the pattern resembles some of the looks we saw in the 2013/14 winter and we had an absolute big dog near Valentine’s in 2014.
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That’s a hell of a signal at this range.
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Most of the snow survived the day. Idk if it makes it tomorrow but 3 days with snow cover feels like such a steal when it was only a few inches
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I knew this place would come back to life when the pacific jet decided to go touch grass at some point in its existence
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A Sam’s club trip is in order tomorrow .
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Never leaving this forum
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Happy hour GFS run coming for E Nc
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*John Bobs Exteme.Weather.Net.Storm Tracker Facebook Network* ”EXTREME STORM coming to the southeast in a week. Do with this information what you please but preparations for an apocalyptic snow event followed by the worst cold in American history need to be made.” *500k likes/200k shares*
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Lmao. I hadn’t checked this thread in a few hours, saw 44 unread messages and immediately knew something dropped off a board wide Dec 2018. Confirmed. What a weenie run.
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Anybody getting dejavu? The ridge out west seems much more cooperative at this range. Notice how it’s going polar instead of getting tilted towards the Rockies and Alberta. Overrunning from a weak low along the frontal boundary is probably the likelihood but I would not rule out a phased bomb. It almost pulls it off later in the run but the northern stream doesn’t link up. .
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You’re spot on. Below average for them but not record breaking.
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You can’t ask for much more at the 500mb level.
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It happened but it wasn’t a major or even moderate event. Back in late Dec when the models were showing those absurdly cold temps at this date, the TPV lobe that broke off was modeled to be just south of Hudson Bay. Unfortunately - (or fortunately), the Pacific jet gave the lobe a punch that sent it back north.
