BooneWX

I am by no means cliff diving. That would typically include an emotionally charged rant where I’m screaming at the sky. I’ve seen enough on the models to say that the higher likelihood is a northern stream dominated system which will keep some of us out of the game. Trust me, I’ll be here like the weather sicko I am, rooting for @GaWxand others. Would I love to see a board wide hit? Absolutely. But unless we get more involvement from the Baja low and maintain the track (hard to do both) - no board wide win is happening.

Yes, northwest of Charlotte to the Triad and north of there is probably ok to step back from the computer at this point. According to Dr. Wall, a NW trend is highly unlikely which should make many on this board excited.

We have a new cold or virus in our home every 7 days. I’ve never seen anything like it. I think I have more cold and flu meds in my cabinet than a CVS right now.

Gonna be painful to see Cantore in Charleston while I’m high and dry but I’m happy for you guys way down south. This could be an event you remember on your death bed.

Hope we get a token flake or two but after next week, I want a -PNA, +NAO, and all time February records. I’ve had enough cold and dry + the sickness going around rn is absurd. After Helene, the last thing I wanted was this boring ass winter so let’s just kick it to summer.

Well. Not afraid to admit that for now, the trend is not our friend. Ain’t gonna lie boys!!! This is gonna suck. Especially if I watch Columbia SC get 15”+. Admittedly, it’s not the model suite that changed my tune, it’s Dr. Jonathan Wall saying it’s over for us that did.

Idk if I’ve ever seen a bigger board-wide win

Oooooooohhhhh Canadaaaaaaaaa

Not a noob question and to answer it, yes. There’s verification data available- in fact, I saw a chart a while back but that may have been one for the legacy models vs AI. Nonetheless, it’s a metric that’s tracked.

Oh I believe it’s coming but I’m hard pressed to believe it’ll be as stout as modeled. I think we’ll see moderation a bit by Sunday.

Day 5 ish…..Bout that time to do the ol’ cycle! Days 7-10: This looks awesome Days 4-6: WHERE DID IT GO. *Cliff diving ensues*, people question their passion for weather, anecdotes of storms’ past begin, climate conversations launch. Days 2-3: WE ARE SO BACK 1 day away: the short range is over amplified and out to lunch Event: God the NAM was right again

It’s weird because I’m in the opposite camp from yall rn. I could care less about Saturday and keep looking at next week. I agree trends aren’t great right now but small tweaks would give us not only a storm but a very big storm. I think part of that mindset is driven by the “I’ll believe it when I see it” approach to this cold air.

I’m going to bed in a bit. Gonna need all that energy this weekend to manifest a winter storm watch by late Sunday/early Monday.

Wish the 18z euro would go out further. That was about to be the biggest storm the south had seen in a very long time.

GEFS has the signal and continues to increase precip northward with each run. One of the rare times the ensemble won’t follow the OP.

Euro AI, Graphcast and Canadian are absolutely major storms for WNC. Euro AI specifically painted a beautiful 8-12” of snowpack on our glorious hills. And those were 10:1 ratios. Temps would’ve gotten us in the 13-15:1 range. .

All I’m paying attention to right now is the baroclinic zone setting up. I don’t buy suppressed solutions at this range because historically, it’s going to ride that gradient, which is not only a good storm for us, it’s a memorable one. Like I said earlier today. There would be no death wish greater than having the jackpot over us at day 6. Patience, it’s coming west with time. It’s a climatologically ripe storm for us, not to even mention that consistently, every model underperforms at this range with the extent of the moisture to the NW. I cannot count on my hand how many times I’ve seen this depiction at day 6, only for it to be a huge storm for WNC, ETN and SW VA.

We should note the consistency of the Canadian. 0Z to 6z to 12z have been slightly different totals but same storm evolution and footprint.

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That could be an issue as well. I still think we’re days from knowing but I’ve seen this dance played out too often to feel like enc is scoring in this storm. Nothing against them at all and I’ll be rooting for them if so - but you absolutely don’t want to be in the bullseye at day 6.

Canadian has the most climatological look of any rn

She’ll come west. Our HP and cold press isn’t looking as stout or far south as initially thought and I think soon we’ll see runs that reflect that.

Took a break last night and went to bed without looking at the runs. I like where we’re at. Everyone should. This is the most barking signal we’ve had in almost a decade. Last storm we had a windshield wiper effect going but most model suites have generally the same idea and we keep seeing major events on various Ops and ensemble runs. The two caveats I can see screwing this up: 1. yesterday was not a good trend in the PNA department. We lost some ground there. It’s inevitably going negative as we head into Feb but for those three/4ish days we need it to quit trending towards neutral. If we don’t have a solid western ridge, we run the risk of the cold dumping south but not south east fast enough. 2. Obvious risk of an amped up storm that creates mixing issues (likely a problem regardless). aside: we need to have a chat about the GFS. We joke about it quite a bit in this group but I legitimately am not sure you can give it an ounce of weight anymore. Watch king Euro AI and then prepare to watch king NAM

One mediocre model suite. We’re fine. We lost last weeks storm completely as we approached this range.

Hold all opinions until king NAM comes into range