BooneWX

Canadian has the most climatological look of any rn

She’ll come west. Our HP and cold press isn’t looking as stout or far south as initially thought and I think soon we’ll see runs that reflect that.

Took a break last night and went to bed without looking at the runs. I like where we’re at. Everyone should. This is the most barking signal we’ve had in almost a decade. Last storm we had a windshield wiper effect going but most model suites have generally the same idea and we keep seeing major events on various Ops and ensemble runs. The two caveats I can see screwing this up: 1. yesterday was not a good trend in the PNA department. We lost some ground there. It’s inevitably going negative as we head into Feb but for those three/4ish days we need it to quit trending towards neutral. If we don’t have a solid western ridge, we run the risk of the cold dumping south but not south east fast enough. 2. Obvious risk of an amped up storm that creates mixing issues (likely a problem regardless). aside: we need to have a chat about the GFS. We joke about it quite a bit in this group but I legitimately am not sure you can give it an ounce of weight anymore. Watch king Euro AI and then prepare to watch king NAM

One mediocre model suite. We’re fine. We lost last weeks storm completely as we approached this range.

Hold all opinions until king NAM comes into range

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Almost insane how much they look alike, not only at the 500mb level but with the surface depiction too for these clown runs.

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This whole setup is much simpler to score in. Pretty typical SE winter storm look across the board. Yall get some sleep tonight or buy Red Bull. Could be a long 5-6 days.

My goodness. Two lows. Back to back hits in the same day.

Brick’s storm survives another suite

1050 over Iowa should do the trick. It ain’t cutting.

Everything about this pattern screams WNC special. I’ve got a good feeling. We’ve taken some absolute hits the past few decades from this exact 500 mb pattern. You could not feasibly draw a prettier setup.

Another thing to like is that we are seeing consistency on the modeling for the ridge out west to be oriented in a more conducive manner for ejecting that Baja low east. Last storm the pacific jet kept tilting that ridge east too much.

This is why I’m absolutely adamant about the HP. It’s not just about the CAD, it’s about forcing the storm to not cut. Although I do think one thing we have working for us at the moment is how sharp this cold front will be and its potential position. It’s less likely to cut when it has an easy baroclinic zone to ride. Path of least resistance.

Idc about the storm itself rn as long as it keeps showing up somewhere in the south on the model runs. All I care about is that big ass high parking itself right where it needs to be. I ain’t doing one of these in-situ messes again.

6z GFS - rain depiction but very clear snow sounding imby. It’s below 32 until around 4k ft and even then, 35°.

It’s not a coincidence that ensemble runs and OPs keep spitting out crippling storms every few runs. The upper air pattern is one that has given us some of our best memories. This has legs.

yea that’s an absolutely honking signal. The type of mean we were seeing at day 9/10 with the last storm

How could so many of you in this group doubt the southeast ridge? Have ye no faith? What a year we’re having for folks to feel more confident in the cold press over the SER getting into position.

I recall a not so different look for the Valentine’s storm of 2014. That was an absolute crippler of a storm for western NC. .

I like where we’re at. I’d be more frantic had we not received some snow on Friday but the pattern looks good and I’m not buying the Barney temps for one second. I’ve seen that outlook before and we nearly missed a storm entirely due to warm temps. I’ve seen others point this out and it’s true, the pattern resembles some of the looks we saw in the 2013/14 winter and we had an absolute big dog near Valentine’s in 2014.

That’s a hell of a signal at this range.

Most of the snow survived the day. Idk if it makes it tomorrow but 3 days with snow cover feels like such a steal when it was only a few inches