BooneWX

Man what a flip overnight. The long range had hinted at the 4-6th timeframe for days but that Euro run made me knees weak.

Murphy to Manteo!

Clown maps aside. The gfs shows the potential that we’ve waited all winter long for. Feb has always been the target with a strong El Niño, so let’s see if it can deliver. Lord knows this forum needs it lol.

Too late!!!

This sub forum needs a blockbuster storm like a fish needs water. We’ve never been collectively down this bad as a group. fwiw, I see both sides being right. The cold dumped east, just not east enough. Unfortunately for us, the trough didn’t dig into our area which kept it mostly seasonal - save a few days - and bottled it up west of the apps. We really were just a few hundred (less in many cases)miles from an all-time week here. It just didn’t pan out. Two things we appear to be getting that we haven’t had consistently in a while: - a +PNA - one that pushes into Alaska and makes the energy more likey to dig where we need it. We haven’t had a good synoptic storm in so long because the pacific pattern sucks. An -NAO is useless if the PNA is junk. Hang in there!

And the timeline has moved up quite a bit!

You’re probably more likely to be right but idk. I have a funny feeling about mid-Feb. Eventually the streak of no-snow ends and it may be next year but I’ll hang on to hope even if it’s false hope until Feb 25th.

It’s always this progression: cold—-brief warm up—-rain——cold——brief warm up on the bright side, the pattern is reloading. Is this our shot? Idk. If we get to Feb 25th with nothing, I’ll be ready to punt our way into spring. I’m still optimistic for now though - it’s probably the best pattern in a while for our region since the cold doesn’t look displaced too far west.

It even has 2 inches into Asheville

That is a STOUT nwf signal on the 12z gfs for Sunday

Weather really does have a memory it seems. In December we were given this exact picture of a death ridge that would rule for 3+ weeks and it ended up being slightly above normal at best with some legitimately warmer days on the front end like this week. The upcoming pattern screams opportunities for CAD and progressive cold shots. It won’t be an ideal pattern for winter weather but when is it ever?

great La Niña we’re having

Hopefully in the next few days we can move the timeframe up a bit. I saw the MJO looks to be progressing faster on todays plots after looking like it was going to slow down in the warm phases. The back half of winter was always the timeline with a strong nino, it’s obviously just not comforting to many of us on a 700+ day snowless streak.

I’ve been wondering the same for me since we moved to our new place. I was in a cold sink in rural Burke County but we moved into a new place about 200-300 yards back from the water and it stays significantly warmer at night here.

14. Sort of ready for this warm up - just wish it wasn’t wet! looks like the pattern reloads and delivers the second week of Feb. It’ll be a race against time with the sun angle changing but one of these days Feb is going to deliver again. Why not this year?

Beautiful piece of property!

23 and the sun is still up

You couldn’t ask for the ridge to be in a better spot

Ain’t gonna move anymore. Trending down. 29 was the cap here as well. Brutally cold night in store.

Greatest snowfall event of my life was Feb 2014 at Valentines. I won’t quit on this winter unless we get to the 25th of Feb or so and it looks warm in the extended range.

The torch in December also wasn’t as torchy as we thought it’d be. A couple well above average days but mostly muted by endless rainstorms - which, looks exactly like the upcoming pattern.

Flow still flowing?

My suspicion is a bit of Downsloping because my wind has been more westerly than northwesterly. I’ll be curious to see where we max because I’m hard pressed to believe it stays under freezing now but maybe.

Low of 19. Very unimpressive “arctic blast”