BooneWX

Things generally trended better last night with the cold air source. It’s not over yet!

I may be losing it, but I swear we’ve got white rain picking up here at the house

Crazy how only snow gets affected by downsloping.

I was hoping we’d get some clarity here at 12z but I had to remind myself that it’s D7. I still think there’s plenty of reason for many to have hope. The signal isn’t as strong but it’s not gone. I refuse to take OPs verbatim at this stage.

That was close. It looked better in the early stages - just didn’t look great when it got here. Again, baby steps.

This may be a good GFS run……..

This storm is very close to being very big for many. It’s easy to get caught up in the windshield wiper effect but the bottom line is that we’re watching very subtle changes that can influence a big nothing burger or a paste bomb. Too early to tap out.

Moving I-85 a few hundred miles east

Wake up @wncsnowyoure getting pasted

Is this one of the AI models? That’s a climatologically favored look.

While we’re putting out requests, mark me down for it to be a 1040

Come to think of it, the last 3 model cycles have introduced very drastic changes to our cold air source from the north. If we’re trending away from the 50/50 low as a source, we really need that high to anchor.

Climbing the coast doesn’t create negative tilt, we just need the energy to dig a bit more and consolidate, which gives us a better chance at a negatively tilted storm. Right now it’s weak and strung out. It’s shooting out to sea at the moment because it has no room to lift north because of the 50/50 low blocking it near Nova Scotia. The trend during 12z is to scoot that 50/50 low further east, letting the storm have more room to climb and high pressure feeding cold air down the spine of the apps. All positive steps but a slightly more amplified storm would help a bit.

Not an awful look.

Overall, the setup looks better than last night on the euro but the storm is still flat and suppressed with a neutral tilt. Baby steps.

Better cad signature on the euro this run but it’s still not going to cut it

As I said in the Mtn thread yesterday, I had a feeling this would trend towards a CAD event if it continued trending towards an event at all. Let’s reel this one in boys. I love the look of the mean for our region.

Check please

Wouldn’t sweat the euro. A 985 mb low just off of Myrtle beach that’s essentially completely devoid of moisture isn’t an output I’d take literally.

I think that’s where we’re headed in the end. I can’t remember which met on twitter mentioned this yesterday, but if that low near Maine doesn’t start trending further east, this is less likely to be a slider and more likely to be a coastal storm.

Also today could be rough. It’ll take a lot less wind than normal to push trees over, after the deluge we’ve had.

I just need to bite the bullet and pay for the weather bell subscription. These ensemble graphs always remind me of what I’m missing out on.

Suppressed is good at 7 days

Murphy to manteo to the upstate and in between. That’s what this board needs. Don’t even care if it takes a much less amped storm and smaller totals to make it happen.

Are my eyes deceiving me or is the NAM suggesting the smokies get smokied by 30+ inches??