BooneWX

I’d love to know what is baked into some of these ensembles. A few hang on to the Carolina crusher idea. .

What a few months of weather it’s been! Historical tropical system in the mountains and foothills, and a historical snow coming to the beach.

I just find it so ironic how warm our oceans are and how equally difficult it is to get a juiced up phased bomb.

Faucet dripping weather is upon us

We’re moving towards consensus finally

But boy oh boy did it come close. Almost caught the bowling ball over the epac.

Honestly, color me shocked by this. Those are oddly high odds for our area. .

RDU folks complained for years about things being too amped and they very well may watch suppression kill them too.

Lol I was just thinking the same. Quickly trending towards the immediate coast or bust. Been a long time since we’ve seen a truly amped, robust system. Always chuckle when people worry about that (hasn’t been a concern for anybody in a long time.) Still intrigued by the NAM. Gonna be interesting to see if it latches onto the overrunning idea.

After digesting some of the 12z data, I think someone in this circle sees snow .

Waa overriding cold air + it’s trending less stout with the cold at the upper levels

I just keep reminding myself that all we need is .2 - .3” of liquid for this to be a big storm locally

In lieu of my takeaways, the Euro AI has been very wobbly for this storm and not nearly as consistent

Seems like the models are catching on to the WAA overriding the arctic airmass. I’d expect improvements to continue on the northwest side today and tomorrow.

Not to mention how rare of a NW trend it would take to get us involved. Right now the low tracks almost through central Fl and then over the eastern edge of the Gulf Stream. I’ve seen plenty of scenarios where RDU is in the jackpot with a storm just a little bit off of the coast and it trends just barely inland and buries us instead. Idk if I’ve ever seen one this far out translate to a western NC event. Like I said earlier. The track is fairly baked in imo. There will be a minor jog nw but not enough to get us involved alone. If we can get a full phase and generate some overrunning we’re in the game. As of right now, no guidance shows that except for a few ensembles mostly skewed to the Canadian, who’s own Op, is trending away from a phase.

Tastes the same when it’s washed down with the shine

I’d take a breather on these comments. Yall are all wasting your time. A salt circle with a sacrificed rabbit on a stake in the middle got me nothing but a sleet fest last week.

Yep. Stop me when you’ve heard this before but the cold seems a bit overdone and it’s starting to reflect that. I do think it hits a firm stopping point sooner than normal but if you look at the jet orienting sw to ne from the gulf, it screams overrunning. There’s a lot to still watch for WNC.

Idc if I’m wishcasting or not. Look at that jet on the GFS with a Gulf connection. No we won’t get huge rates but do not be shocked if this trend continues and cams deliver a 12+ hr period of light snow. .

Wow! It even gives me @wncsnowsome McFlurries

Yep. We’re all in on a phase or bust with us. A couple of Mets like Webb keep saying they expect robust overrunning to start showing up when the CAMs are in range. The jet streak depicted on most models is very favorable so we have that. I wouldn’t expect globals to show overrunning at this range either.

To be fair, the Euro isn’t close on the phase timing or tilt. If it’s right, it’s game over except for the immediate coast.

Interesting to see the amount of big hits from the Canadian Ensembles. Probably hanging on to lost hope but we’re also at a point where options still seem to be on the table. 7/20 are massive hits locally 12/20 decent event or better 8/20 no dice

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It’s all noise until king NAM comes into range