BooneWX

I like where we sit for now

Haven’t had a chance to digest the 18z data but my biggest takeaway from the 12z was the EPS steadily increasing amounts again for the CAD regions. Of anything at D9/10, that’s the one thing I’d prefer to have in my corner. Anything else is noise at this range.

I’ll say this. Living in the foothills for most of my life, when we do get a big storm, the signal usually starts around D9/10 and only progresses louder. That doesn’t mean to say it happens often, but when it does, it’s rarely something that starts coming together 3/4 days out.

Ironically I did, just in case lol. I felt like winter was probably coming back but I also remembered last year when I thought that and proceeded to have a crabgrass invasion by late March. Lowe’s has 0-0-7 50lb bags for $37 in case anyone wants to snag some.

My god what a GFS run. Might save that for the archive.

Euro AI casually dropping feet on the foothills overnight lol. It does seem like next week has some legs.

Fab Feb is loading….

MJO, climatology, and everything else aside, one thing that’s very different than past February’s is the fact that we have cold on this side of the globe. If we get another episode of a stretched PV + the ridge bridge shown on some of the modeling over the arctic, we’ll be in the freezer. Maybe not the January freezer but cold nonetheless.

The models are coming around a bit today as @Daniel Boonealluded to. The background state is the background state and for once, it’s a cold one. I still think persistent cold will be a lot more challenging this time around but I also think a more extreme gradient between warm and cold could pay off with the storm track for some.

I would’ve given it a D or F many years ago but I’m not sure averages are relevant anymore. We’re clearly in a different weather era for the south and I truly think our old climatology moved north by a few states boardwide, years ago.

If this is the end of the prime winter weather stretch, so be it. I hate we all didn’t match the cold and moisture more often but truthfully, we’ve had almost wall to wall cold since Thanksgiving except for a mild thaw around Christmas. It’s bound to flip and it’s very hard to piece together a third month when you’ve had almost 2 perfect months in the south. I still think we’ll have shots and a volatile month but extended cold like we had in January is probably going to be hard to come by. Oceanic temps in the Enso region show a more established La Niña and that’s a harbinger of the SER being a dominate feature as we migrate towards spring. Winter grade to now: Cold/feels like winter: A+ Moisture: D overall: C+. Snowless streak broken imby and for many. An improvement from the F winters of late. Long term hope: La Niña trends to neutral and we get a very weak Nino next winter. I’m worried about spring and summer in the meantime. For many on this board, Helene left a mess that won’t be cleaned up in the forests and woods. A drought would be very bad news.

Another reason why I think this will be more of a thaw than a torch.

A rare chance to avoid all of the crappy MJO phases is upon us

The models are speeding up the transition back to cold. Looks like a torch lite until the end of the first week of Feb but the -EPO has a little more winter for us.

Models showing our persistent west coast ridge returning after the first week of Feb. could be a reaction to seeing the MJO head into the null phase but either way - what a winter. It’s been the reverse for years.

We’ve had a few if any ice storms in the modern era that involve strong HP to the NE. Most are in-situ CAD events, which do indeed bust 9/10 times.

If it ain’t snow, it can go. I’d rather it be 95 with a DP in the 70s next Saturday than reel in an ice storm. If that’s the option on the table I hope you RDU folks score again and not me!

Going to approach this one with caution. We haven’t had a single Baja low eject properly all winter.

Now THATS something I know us foothills folks can bank on. Probably a rare time we’ll see a lock from far out . Jokes aside, we’re coming to the end of this frigid pattern and I’ve always found that when people say “watch the end of the pattern,” it rarely has anything to do with snow. Like @wncsnowsaid, there’s plenty of cold in Canada. All it’ll take is some unfortunate timing to have a monster ice storm in the cad regions. Unfortunately we are historically due. It’s been a very very long time since our region has had a major ice storm, or even any ice storm that involves an actual anchored high to the north.

Rooting for us big time. Gonna be selfish and greedy next storm . Now that everyone else has had their fill, I’m politely requesting a 1040 hp just east of Toronto, with a phased low reaching negative tilt in Alabama before tracking through southern Georgia - to Charleston and Virginia Beach.

I just think we forgot what a seasonably average winter should feel like.

I just want every seasonal cold virus out of my house lol. If it takes 90° to make it happen then let er rip!

Storms like these remind me of how annoyed I get when people say we’re in a climatologically favored region. We’re absolutely not. We have to have a gulf low in perfect position with CAD to get snow here. Anyone from the piedmont - east can get just about any shitty setup to work out for them and I don’t mean that as a knock but it’s reality. It truly comes down to a miller A or sometimes a miller b depending on thermals for us. Thats it. No clippers, no flow, rarely do ULLs work here, southern sliders…eh. Most of the time no.

I’m kinda at that point too! Especially after getting our hand burnt two weeks ago. Burnt out with the dry cold, lack of sunlight and sickness in my house. Ready to put the pontoon on the water and embrace the gold bond time of year.

Thinking we burn the first two roughly