BooneWX

I asked for a Dec 2018 redux and all I had under the tree was a print out surface map of a cutter. 

16 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

That trough needs to be further west or it's cold, dry and windy for most of the SE. 

this is my fear as well. We did this dance in the front half of Dec. To our benefit this time around, it looks like we could have some blocking to help slow down the progressiveness of the storms.
 

Then again, when is the pattern ever a total slam dunk when we score? Feeling oddly good compared to years past… Don’t know why. I can’t put my finger on it, just do. Hope I’m right.

Merry Christmas foothill brethren 

Euro snow ensemble mean was nice

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Northern stream = brown ground 

We’re in the season of giving (to everyone else except us foothills folk)

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Split flow with an active subtropical jet please 

YOULL TAKE THE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM AND YOULL LIKE IT

Pacific jet retraction, blocking, west coast ridge, cross polar flow. We need one more thing.

lol….

Gentle swing there by the GFS

For what it’s worth, the AI models, including the GFS graph cast are closer to the EPS than the GFS and its suite 

Just now, wncsnow said:

I would normally agree with you but the past 3 or 4 winters have had a parade of storms cutting West of us with the SE Ridge flexing. 

The past 3 or 4 winters have had Oct/Nov temps in Jan for the most part as well, so idk if we really have any track record to go on in recent years as far as that’s concerned with low placement + the cold dumping into the conus. This side of the world has been devoid of cold since a 2 week period in 2022.

Idk. I’ll take the cold dumping in the plains on Ops for now. I could care less about a trough centered over New England. The former has a much better chance of delivering with a block than the latter. 

1 hour ago, jburns said:

Damn. You must be one tough dude.  No way am I standing outside naked waiting for an icing event. 

Some of you RDU folks need to go full weenie after that Euro run

On another note, I’m not going to get giddy about how cold some of the guidance is. My worry is that too much of a good thing will have lows tracking through Cuba. 

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Best we can do is a cutter on this run lol:

Hey! I’ll take that signal this far out. Storm present in the eastern US and HP aplenty to the north. 

19 for the low and I’m sure this happens more frequently than I realize but we had rime ice on the trees down by the water this morning. Felt like a winter wonderland.

28 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

How far East?

Central NC atm

Christmas Eve bares watching for an icing event….

29 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I’m looking at Xmas day and cloudy and mid-40s feels festive. That’s a win.

Weather looks phenomenal. And even the “torch” ain’t looking so torchy. I guess it depends on where you’re at, but the extended for me is mostly 50s. 

I’m excited about the Jan potential but man… I can’t help but notice how in most of the LR guidance, the trough axis is over New England. That’s just simply not going to get it done here most of the time.

Decent lil pre Christmas thump on the way 

Wall clouds in December boys, we just need to change our mindset on what excites us.

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro ensemble has a very pretty +PNA at the end. Canadian ens does, too, but not the GFS ens.

Came here to say the same about the 12z suite.
 

in hindsight, absolutely zero has changed from previous thoughts over the past week. The only change is that the well predicted and overly advertised post-Christmas warm up went from fantasy land to the mid range. 

https://x.com/ferragamowx/status/1869056213197152290?s=46
 

off topic but this is amazing work that many in this crew will appreciate