BooneWX

Can’t wait to see the pics from this group. It’s about to absolutely crank.

And for what it’s worth, I think this upcoming “torch” is more of a gently above average type of deal for the upper south than 70s and golf weather. It looks like we’re going to be flooded with Pacific air, which isn’t exactly a torch signal - usually just a signal for a lot of 50s and low 60s sprinkled in. Torch to me is “tune up the lawnmower” weather cause it might start growing again.

I think point 1 is what I was trying to illustrate though. Maybe not on here, but I saw dozens of talking heads ignoring other parameters surrounding winter weather potential in the south as if the MJO is the only driver. I just don’t believe that it is. It has to be taken with a grain of salt and many big storms have occurred in less than ideal phases. So we actually agree on more than you think, I should’ve just added more context. It matters but it’s one drop in the very large bucket of things we need to get right to deliver an impactful winter weather event.

I think if we all put our minds to it, we could easily crowd fund a small cabin in the Tug Hills of NY

Idk if I’d change the timing, I’m getting a new St. Croix Seviin reel on Christmas Day

You nailed it for sure. You also smelt the bs of this current pattern long before anyone else.

File this away as well: MJO always has and always will be a vastly overrated teleconnection. We’ll firmly be in 8 for these 70° days.

I do think this pattern comes back around before long. If I had to take a shot in the dark, I’d say 2ish weeks of seasonal to above average. It just stinks that those 2 weeks begin right before Christmas but on the bright side, an above average Christmas lets the kids get outside with new toys. We sort of needed this reset as well. This pattern was never going to produce. It’s northern stream dominated, Alaska was cold, no southern jet action, and either the trough was not deep enough or too far east or the ridge out west was too flat or all of the above. Let me get a cold Jan driven by a more cooperative Pacific.

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Super mega deathtron frost with freezing fog this am

Most won’t appreciate how anomalous of a signal it is to see accumulation outputs on models for the South Mountains and Brushy’s.

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@wncsnow I think I’m coming around to your thoughts about the pattern. I’m not completely out on the next few weeks producing but this current setup with a cold Alaska, slack ridge heights out west and a strong northern stream just isn’t going to cut it unless we get lucky. We need help in the Atlantic too. It stinks to have this much cold on this side of the globe without any fantasy storms but here we are. I’m sort of wondering as well, if what comes after a complete shake up, could be a better version of this. Inject some volatility and get these big blocking mechanisms in the Pacific moving around a bit.

I’ve had snow here for about an hour. It’s very light but steadily falling. Looks nice with the Christmas lights.

Nice snow shower working through

Annnnd it stopped

Full transition. Light snow. 36°

I’m at work in Lenoir and we’re beginning to see flakes

Deck lowering and flattening out, heaviest rain of the day despite nothing showing on radar. Hoping for some last minute magic.

Seems like some back building and development starting to occur in the lee. Radar will be an interesting watch for the next little bit.

Good luck everyone! Happy for yall up north and down east. This is a good start for many of you.

Challenge level: 10/10 Id kill for a good Miller B style storm right now. Give me that front end thump followed by a sleet fest to ensure it doesn’t melt for a week. A 2022 repeat would heal my soul.

Well that’s all for this event folks. Precip orientation has now shifted NW to SE with this tail end, so that should effectively warm the air with Downsloping. Remember, no refunds allowed, please follow the exit signs accordingly as you get off the ride.

I’m off that week and would really enjoy some fishing in lieu of watching it rain and be 38°. Hope it trends warmer not gonna lie lol.

The oil rigs in the Gulf have had more snow in the past 365 days than we’ve had in 7 years