BooneWX

Yep. It doesn’t make me bullish. I’d rather maintain this slightly below average pattern we’ve got rn and hope for an anchored high to deliver the goods. I don’t think anyone outside of the mountains should be rooting for the PV split and historic cold dump.

On the flip side, next weekends trough setup could be more favorable to amplify something. It looks like we might be in a favorable spot with the trough positioned over the lakes.

I just don’t think the temps are going to cut it. Another transient, mistimed HP.

Festive feeling indeed. Some extreme cold trying to pop up in the long range.

All of the above, some weighing on winter more than others at various points. Hot tub temps in the Gulf have certainly made things a challenge, evident in the shift of tornado frequency from the plains to the Deep South. Im on the fence for arctic sea ice/high latitude snow cover. It helps but we’ve had some seriously strong cold outbreaks through the 2000s and they rarely mean anything other than nose bleeds and pipes bursting. This is why I’m not the least bit bullish with the Barney cold showing up on some of the ensembles. It’s useless. Great to have cold on your side of the hemisphere, sure, but if we’re talking about an air mass that would produce temps in the low 30s with full sunlight, those storms will be raining on Cuba.

If anyone is interested, the late Monday storm is coming back on some models. Don’t sweat it tho, it’s another score for the eastern triad to the coast! NEXXXXT

Temp rising. 43/39. Trending towards a cool but not overly cold rain.

If I hadn't seen any models and I was just basing it off of feel, cloud cover and the overall vibe, you’d think we’re about to get buried in all honesty. It feels and looks like a snowfall is coming.

Honestly thankful I can go to sleep in peace instead of getting my soul crushed in the morning

My wet bulb is currently 40°. We do nothing right around here.

I’d like to know what they’re seeing. That’s a substantial increase for an area that by all accounts, won’t dip below 35.

Idk if I’m hitting low to mid 50s. 43.9 at almost 1 pm.

That’s my shred of optimism as well. I just don’t see how low 50s are doable with this cloud deck moving in.

I want to send SEAL team 6 after this guy .

I’m guilty as charged. I mean I do think that matters but back to my point on CAD. It only matters if you have an anchored high that can take full advantage of it. This transient mess doesn’t help.

Ice free you say?? Let’s make the most of it .

We don’t know how to CAD any more. That’s my biggest gripe. Idgaf what anyone says about the pacific, storm track yada yada yada. The biggest thorn in our side these past few years comes down to the fact that a high pressure greater than 1032 doesn’t exist any more. If it does, it’s moving at break neck speed into the Atlantic. Yall are going to hear a lot of complaining from me today, sorry lol. Just getting it out here instead of the main thread.

At this point, I hope the MJO goes into the maritimes and I can at least curb seasonal depression with fishing

Another super frost, prob the most accumulation I’ll see this week. Excited for my token sleet tomorrow and rain

This is probably my last run of looking at the models for this event. I think a lot is decided by mid afternoon tomorrow regardless of what the models are showing. I hold some hope that cloud cover is going to cap temps more than what’s projected. Even 2-3° will have a big net impact 12 hrs later.

Im afraid thats going to happen. You can tell on the models that any closeness you can buy to that limited cold air feed matters. Our DPs and temps just don’t quite get there. For the triad northward, just barely but that’s all that matters.

I’m afraid we can’t win fellas! One of these days it’s coming to our doorstep and we will will rejoice.

Graf is warmer on recent runs. Essentially all rain south of Wilkes, Yadkin counties in the west. Triad dangerously close unless you’re a border county.

Alleghany County and Surry are going to be the big winners. Good for Alleghany too - they’re on the very far east end of the escarpment and don’t benefit very much from northwest flow, despite having the elevation for it.

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