BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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Insane blocking signature showing up. Let’s just get the southern jet involved and we’ll cook.
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LIGHT SNOW
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Radar filling in across WNC. Let’s see if we can get at least a few mood flakes.
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A painful amount of “close but no cigar” setups in WNC for a while now. We’re snow starved down in the foothills but yall kinda are too. Ik nwf happens frequently but it feels like it’s been a century since anyone west of I-77 has seen a synoptic setup.
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Agree 100% with everything above. To me, the biggest takeaway from this storm won’t be the models though. We all should’ve known better because there was no semblance of a HP to our north. Truly a cold chasing moisture event and out of 20 storms, you might score on 1/2 of those setups. Moving forward, I’ll be discounting any storm that doesn’t have this. It’s a minimum requirement around here for snow.
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Game on if the blocking comes to fruition, but that’s the main thing I’ll be watching. Nice ridge bridge showing up near the arctic, displacing the TPV almost to New England. Could also be a suppression signal with extreme cold but we seem to have a Nino look and an increasingly active southern jet which makes sense with how fast the Nina background state is collapsing.
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I know the caveats but the AI models really have a barking signal in that 7-10 day range. Can’t trust a thing, but the big dogs always bark early. There’s some absolutely insane ensemble means being printed out cycle after cycle. Gives me some of the same vibes from Dec 2009, Feb 2014 and Dec 2018.
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You might be seeing the edge of the arctic air a bit before me. Or at least, that’s what I’m telling myself to feel better.
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Lmao. I’m at 46 with a dew of 39. Gonna take a hell of an arctic push to even get to the upper 30s.
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.
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Wild ride of a week. It’s crazy how moisture was the biggest question all week and we thought the cold would be in place but man that front is dragging a**.
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There’s going to be a lot of broken hearts tomorrow across the southeast. That cold air is just not moving in a hurry, plus you have to plan for the slow spillage over the mountains. I could see some areas south of the apps pulling it off, but even then, wet snow falling onto warm, wet ground is a recipe for disappointment.
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Bump. Temps hit the low 50s that day too.
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Another tick west by the AI GFS
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Here we go
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Incredibly. If I remember correctly, it was barely forecasted to be advisory level and I ended up with about 4.5” inches of heavy wet snow. The models right up until go time just couldn’t grasp the upslope flow into the foothills. I believe that storm happened the Saturday night before the Super Bowl.
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Anyone else get a Feb 2021 vibe from this or just me?
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The pattern is there. We’ll have blocking for once.
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From Chris and Dan this morning .
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FV3 lookin nice
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We hug the 12z RAP
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I still think shift or not, with that moisture orientation being sw to ne, we’ll overachieve on rates and qpf
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There’s also a slim chance but a non-zero chance nonetheless that we hit a boom scenario of 2-4”. All it’s going to take is that front getting a little hung up in the mountains and that axis of heaviest moisture will be over us, not the piedmont.
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Sref plumes are up to a mean of around 1.3” at KHKY. My gut says a slushy half an inch tomorrow but that’d be a hell of a victory after watching this storm run away from us.
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We’re probably about to have a healthy 12z nam
