BooneWX
-
Posts
2,655 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by BooneWX
-
https://x.com/contentwxguy/status/1997357683729375599?s=46 a good read on the long range from one of the best at reading it
-
All of this is really good considering the NAM can also be biased towards the low end of QPF in the long range.
-
Looking at the 12k, I think we can toss the surface depiction. Play the loop quickly. Something is wrong - likely some sort of feedback issue. I thought it was picking up on some convective nuances with the splotchiness but it actually just looks like it spazzes out and glitches.
-
Much more expansive on 3k geez. Just a hair, and I mean jusssst a hair more digging and we have a Murphy to Manteo 2-4” event.
-
Surface depiction for the NAM is very similar to 18z, but again, it’s another model that looks improved under the hood. The ridge out west keeps trending taller, helping the shortwave drop a bit further before it scoots east.
-
NAM… sharper, further south and west
-
Fog creeping in heavily at my place - 35°
-
Not a great surface depiction but it was undeniably better under the hood
-
I’ll be first to admit that I wrote this one off early, but a couple more tweaks and it’s a legitimately big deal for a large part of this forum.
-
HRRR keeps the trend going at 0z for the shortwave to dig further west.
-
All of our chips are on the table for a lee side trough. Without it, nothing, with it……
-
That’d be the most excitement we’ve had in 3 years
-
Actually seems like a pretty reasonable output. The footprint makes sense to me.
-
Clearing skies and wet grass, that frost is going to be serious. I’ll be close to passing my seasonal totals of late with just a few more chilly mornings.
-
Upslope only happens for us during hurricanes, you know the rules
-
Suppression (depression) city
-
GEFS moved the trough west at 12z, right where we’d need it. Gotta get the euro ensembles on board though.
-
We are so close, it’s easy to see. Right now, we’re getting the red track with these shortwaves, which continues to favor a lack of digging and marginal weak events into the mid-Atlantic. Nudge that trough west so it’s centered over the lakes and we’ll be ready for takeoff. It wouldn’t take much to trend that direction - it’s really a small tweak at range. Pumping that ridge out west would be helpful too but we can’t have everything. .
-
Cross polar flow is showing up though…I think we’re always programmed to think this is a good thing in the south but I can’t disagree more. This is likely going to be way too much of a good thing. Pipe bursting cold and snow are usually not synonymous.
-
If we continue to tick that trough further west next weekend, we likely have a shot with the northern energy digging more.
-
Guilty as charged
-
I’ve admittedly never been a big DT guy but this is well worth the 22 min watch
-
Someone will get the ultimate tease from the NAM tomorrow
-
Let’s play a game of find the lee .
-
GEFS with quite the increase in precip as well. I still think thermals would be an issue, especially that time of day.
