BooneWX

Decent miller b pattern in the long range

The 12z GEFS shows an interesting evolution of the Scandinavian ridge. Its retrogrades west quickly, establishing a strong -NAO, which then pumps the cold air over Quebec down the east coast while our death ridge gets beaten into oblivion. Despite that, there’s enough of a gradient that one has to think it would open the opportunity for either a miller b or an overrunning setup that would favor the upper southeast and yes, east of the apps for once.

I’ve really stalled out at 41. I’ve been here a while. Unimpressed. Strong cold front, sure but yesterday’s projections had me at 32 by now.

Each day this week, the long range has slowly walked back on the magnitude of the warmth. I’m starting to think it’s generally just a reshuffle and reload. The cold will remain bottled up on this side of the globe and with a -NAO developing, it’s poised to CAD itself right down the spine of the apps. Without the Pacific cooperating, everything will be transient but what’s new? I don’t the think the MJO reflects results as much as folks want to believe it does, but it certainly folds heavily into modeling. We’ve been in the cod for the past few days and it’s actually been leaning on the phase 5 side of the circle. It looks like it wants to charge back into 8 here shortly, so don’t be shocked this week when Christmas torch becomes Christmas seasonal with a frigid New Year holiday.

There’s nothing about my extended forecast that looks like a torch to me. Above average? Sure. Upper 50s? Far from tanning by the pool.

Temps are starting to fall off the cliff here

Very nice day. It felt good to get outside. I even took the fly rod down to the pond near my house just to see if the bass were biting (they weren’t). I figured that’d be the case with the cold water temps but this warmup should get them stirring again. I might have to take a trip up the mountain to do a little trout fishing.

The ensembles are really trying to get a -NAO established around Christmas. We just need some signs of life from the Pacific.

No Roxboro jackpot, toss it out

Of course, without a +PNA you have nothing. Needs some positive trends there.

I think this warm up is a bit different than the head fake we saw modeled for early December. It’s coming, and it’s pretty obvious by every parameter except the MJO. The question is how long? Modeling seems to show the Scandinavian ridge migrating into a -NAO set up and the EPO going negative as well. My bet is by new years we’re back in business but I may be wrong. I think Jan could be cold before we enso rears its ugly head in Feb.

She probably saw some rogue CFS frame from 400 hrs out, posted by a FB page with a name like “SEVERE APOCALYPTIC SNOW WEATHER CENTER. NET.” She’ll call all Mets liars for it not verifying.

Let a man dream

I mean. How magical would it be to get a surprise? Radar isn’t supposed to look like this right now. .

I don’t fear the transition. I fear the staying power of the transition.

Can’t wait to see the pics from this group. It’s about to absolutely crank.

And for what it’s worth, I think this upcoming “torch” is more of a gently above average type of deal for the upper south than 70s and golf weather. It looks like we’re going to be flooded with Pacific air, which isn’t exactly a torch signal - usually just a signal for a lot of 50s and low 60s sprinkled in. Torch to me is “tune up the lawnmower” weather cause it might start growing again.

I think point 1 is what I was trying to illustrate though. Maybe not on here, but I saw dozens of talking heads ignoring other parameters surrounding winter weather potential in the south as if the MJO is the only driver. I just don’t believe that it is. It has to be taken with a grain of salt and many big storms have occurred in less than ideal phases. So we actually agree on more than you think, I should’ve just added more context. It matters but it’s one drop in the very large bucket of things we need to get right to deliver an impactful winter weather event.

I think if we all put our minds to it, we could easily crowd fund a small cabin in the Tug Hills of NY

Idk if I’d change the timing, I’m getting a new St. Croix Seviin reel on Christmas Day

You nailed it for sure. You also smelt the bs of this current pattern long before anyone else.

File this away as well: MJO always has and always will be a vastly overrated teleconnection. We’ll firmly be in 8 for these 70° days.

I do think this pattern comes back around before long. If I had to take a shot in the dark, I’d say 2ish weeks of seasonal to above average. It just stinks that those 2 weeks begin right before Christmas but on the bright side, an above average Christmas lets the kids get outside with new toys. We sort of needed this reset as well. This pattern was never going to produce. It’s northern stream dominated, Alaska was cold, no southern jet action, and either the trough was not deep enough or too far east or the ridge out west was too flat or all of the above. Let me get a cold Jan driven by a more cooperative Pacific.

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Super mega deathtron frost with freezing fog this am