BooneWX

Bleh. Northern stream doing northern stream things.

It’ll be interesting to see if we continue to trend stronger overnight on the CAD. Rn I’d say this event favors snow in VA and an ice storm with a possible front end thump for those along and north of I-85 in NC.

The 18z Euro is starting to sniff out the CAD for Friday. Nice drop in temps from 12z.

Yea nobody leave or drop off. The wave, gnawing and gnashing of teeth this time of year is kinda the most fun part of the season. It’s the chase of the emotional highs and lows tracking winter weather that keeps us coming back.

You’re understandably frustrated and I get it. You and I among many, both live in an area that should get multiple opportunities per year and we are lucky to get 1 shot every 3/4 seasons of late. I just think we’ve all got to take a breath. The models were showing near record temps for the exact period we’re talking about just a week ago, and now we’ve got fantasy storms. I’m not in any way discounting the EPS or the Euro Op - you’re 100% correct: nothing concrete is shown but an emerging -NAO, -AO, cold on our side of hemisphere and an active southern jet is all we can ask for at the moment. The way the models have performed, I don’t think we can definitively say yes/no to a storm any time soon. The trend is our friend right now, so I’ll take it.

I’ll be the first to say I need assistance via @GaWxto help with some case studies but I’d argue a big reason we’ve lacked winter storms in recent years comes down to the lack of a -NAO, which fortunately, the models are starting to catch up and show. We’ve lacked that for multiple seasons to help keep the cold bottled up on the east coast. Friday is prime example of how snowpack can help. Most of the models have a 1030ish HP to our north. That is never going to cut it unless the source region for our cold isn’t modifying. That snowpack is going to be a tremendous help in making sure that it doesn’t. It basically saves us from being dependent on a 1035+ in a perfect position to advect cold, dry air.

12z Icon: icy mess

I’m not going to post clowns for the GFS because of how useless it’s been of late, but 12Z is a bit colder. Verbatim it’s a major mess of a storm north of I-85. 3-5” of snow for many, followed by a 1/4-1/2” of ice (Friday into Saturday).

Aside, does anyone know where I can access the Google DeepMind model? It crushed it this summer and I’d really like to see how it performs this winter.

I may crash out if Dec doesn’t produce lol .

Step down process is doing what it does…upper Midwest and Northeast first, then Kentucky, WV and parts of the mid Atlantic on Tuesday…Friday? Remains to be seen but could be us, or could be close with no cigar. Either way, it’s usually the third storm in the pattern change that initiates our shots.

Goes to show how helpful a glacier to the north can be. A 1029 high just isn’t going to cut it 90% of the time but it would be advecting some seriously refrigerated air and incredibly low dew points. End of the week definitely bares watching, the GFS isn’t on an island with this idea, there’s been flashes from other model data. Buckle up.

22.1

My suspicion is that we’re about to see a flurry of activity on the models as we move into Dec. Y’all make sure you’re stocked up on coffee, those 0Z runs trickle in late

I’d cash out. It could be 105 every day through March after that. Dec 2018 all over again.

Tuesday morning could be interesting for the escarpment and immediate lee.

You may do it, sure enough. Thinking I might bottom out around 24-25.

One thing to watch are the consistent pulses of southern stream energy popping up in the long range. That’s been another fly in the ointment the past few years. Last year was a parade of northern stream pieces of energy squashing the southern stream. That’s fine for a novelty event but if you want a big dog, we need less of that this winter.

12z was cold. I won’t be surprised if we get the NAO in our court here soon. There seems to be a lot of noise and the models still are processing the MJO progression. If we can score some blocking with this cold, I think we’ll pull off pre-Christmas for someone.

Point being, if you value any of the outputs on the models beyond roughly 3 days rn, I have some waterfront property in Murphy that I’d like to sell you.

I wouldn’t get too caught up in what the models do or don’t show as far as snowfall rn. We’re 2 days in to the pattern change - one that 4 days ago was supposed to last 3 days according to the models and have us near 80° next week. If we keep getting shots of cold air, laying down snowpack to the north, and have an active storm track, we’ll eventually nail one. We havent even entered the optimal phase of the MJO.

Weird night here. I suppose the wind speed stayed elevated. Went to 28, spiked to 33, back down to 30 pre-dawn.

Climatology aside, this is the best possible MJO progression we’ve seen in a very long time. .

I’d expect the pattern to relax at some point and I wouldn’t be surprised if you’re correct about Christmas. I do think we end up in the freezer again by mid-Jan….just a hunch based on another possible period of SSW.

Well hey….next weekend would be nearing a 7th anniversary for a storm very near and dear to the hearts of all Foothill brethren.