BooneWX

Weather looks phenomenal. And even the “torch” ain’t looking so torchy. I guess it depends on where you’re at, but the extended for me is mostly 50s.

I’m excited about the Jan potential but man… I can’t help but notice how in most of the LR guidance, the trough axis is over New England. That’s just simply not going to get it done here most of the time.

Decent lil pre Christmas thump on the way

Wall clouds in December boys, we just need to change our mindset on what excites us.

Came here to say the same about the 12z suite. in hindsight, absolutely zero has changed from previous thoughts over the past week. The only change is that the well predicted and overly advertised post-Christmas warm up went from fantasy land to the mid range.

https://x.com/ferragamowx/status/1869056213197152290?s=46 off topic but this is amazing work that many in this crew will appreciate

1,060 days since the last measurable snowfall for this crew

You don’t have money to spend on sleds anyway. All of it better be headed to Belichick’s NIL fund.

Murphy to Manteo. That’s what I’m rooting for.

I think we should start bullying the Pacific. If we do, it might start taking us more seriously.

I by no means am wishing for an ice storm but that has been an interesting drought to follow as well. I’d be curious as to when everyone’s neck of the woods last saw a significant (greater than 1/4 inch) ice event. I couldn’t tell you for me, no clue.

Don’t disagree a bit. The oceans are boiling hot.

It’s pretty stinkin apparent to me as to why we’re in the situation we’ll be in. Looking at the GEFS 850s and it’s clear our Pacific jet is absolutely raging just after Christmas and at least through new years. You have the most modest PNA going on but it really doesn’t matter because the jet fuel is aimed right at the top of the ridge, flooding all of Canada and the lower 48 with mild air. I guess if there’s any optimism, that’s what it is, mild air, but I know we’re starting to approach prime climo and this isn’t what anyone wants to see. idk what’s going on with the Pacific, I’d say it’s likely tied to a higher amplitude phase 6 MJO but we’ve seen the Pacific jet torch defy all odds for years. I’m hanging on to optimism, not necessarily because I’m ok with the lack of snow, I want it as bad as anyone, but eventually we’re going to crack the drought and I’m just at the point where I’ve been let down enough to not let it phase me anymore.

I’m not sure what everyone is fretting about anyways. Nobody wants cold weather the day you’re supposed to be handling returns at Target and Best Buy.

It’s also been warm at 5+ days the entire month of December

Feels like it’s been a minute since we’ve had one of those truly raw days like today.

Meanwhile the 12z euro lays down a Christmas Day snow from Alabama to middle Virginia.

That was such an underrated event in our neck of the woods. Saw a little bit of everything and the snow over-performed. Looking back at pictures - roughly 6 ish inches of snow, a nice crust of sleet and a very minimal glaze to top it all off.

The Torch Town thread is also now live for those who need it

A safe space for all Merry Torchmas chatter and beyond. can we pin this to keep the mid-long range thread clean? @jburns

We’re getting ready to traverse through a reasonably high amplitude phase 6. All is going as planned. Phase 7 isn’t all sunshine and roses either for the upper and mid south. Patience as we propagate into high amplitude 8 and 1. It’s still autumn on the calendar.

I think Jan is going to have to be our shot. That’s when the -EPO should be working in our favor the most.

Yep and I don’t like the amount of northern stream dominated runs we’ve seen so far. Clipper energy just doesn’t pan out for us. I’ll be happy for folks if they score but man. Long gone are the days of overrunning events and gulf lows (that don’t cut west).

Fortunately no warm weather regardless. The last frame is a suppressive look with a monster 1045 high over the Ohio valley. No driving, chipping and putting, just nose bleeds and chapstick.