BooneWX
-
Posts
2,850 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by BooneWX
-
We do need noise though. You definitely can’t take them seriously but if we’re going to manage anything fruitful out of this pattern, we need the models to start baring out that fruit. Good sign of things to come hopefully. I love that we’ve also seen a few modes of winter weather. We have some overrunning outputs and some massive miller a signals.
-
Fantasy runs are so back!
-
Same here. There’s just not enough cold air to work with unless we get some sort of mega wedge as we work into the medium range. You can see in the 12z guidance already that our PNA is looking a bit better and we get a train of energy coming down out of the Rockies. It’s usually never the first storm here anyways - always the second and third you have to watch.
-
Big takeaway, this pattern, especially if the TPV continues to show up in lower latitudes is flirting with big dog potential. I’m not as concerned about suppression because we are already seeing some west Atlantic ridging and linkage between energy for once. Should slow things down, allow phasing for a change, and watch it ride that gradient.
-
I think you’re right. Last week, my concern was that our source region really gets scoured out by mild Pacific air and the models are reflecting that. It shouldn’t take long to reload Canada if we get some cross polar flow, but yea, a lot of this will be largely dependent on trapping already marginal cold air and making the environment ripe for stout HPs.
-
Yall would have to put our foothills thread on suicide watch if it played out like that lol
-
Yea that run was a weather weenie’s paradise. Overall, the pattern held in the overnight guidance. It’s a step down process that gradually gets cooler over time. A -NAO really starts to show up later in the scene and bully some cold air down the east coast. That gfs fantasy run was something we really hasn’t seen in a while: deep CAD and a very dynamic shortwave digging all the way to the Gulf before a bee line north. A mauler from NC to Maine.
-
And it’s digital snow not at hour 360!
-
Tried to upload the GFS AI loop but alas. Either way, I like the evolution it shows. We lose our PNA a little bit for some time but cold really dumps from the lakes south. There’s several instances where the trough orientation digs sharply.
-
Not gonna lie. I want a winter storm but I’m longing for summer. I know…sinful to say. Our house has had a virus at least biweekly since Oct. I miss getting outside in the evenings, I miss fishing and tbh, I miss a good peak heating thunderstorm.
-
It screams overrunning potential.
-
We need more help from the pacific jet. You can see on models just how retracted it gets later in runs. It’s funny that we always get too much of the pacific jet or too little but never just enough lol.
-
One minute its SER, the next its cross polar flow and snowfall again for the oil rigs in the Gulf. Hoping we find some balance here soon (we won’t).
-
Lots of players on the field in the long range. I like (Borat voice).
-
Now that our ensembles are in, I like the look we seem to be developing. I still hope we start seeing fantasy storms soon but we’ll have quite the cold pool setting up to our north with blocking in place to deliver CAD. Now can we throw moisture into it?
-
Snow in Arkansas, Tenn, Miss and Alabama? Book it. They have been on a Mountain West heater these past few years with storms.
-
Cad is in full effect here as well
-
We gotta start seeing some fantasy runs soon. I always feel like they’re an indicator of how good/bad the pattern may be.
-
Bring us good fortune again!
-
Where are we for the MJO? Still stuck in the cod?
-
What a bust of a forecast today. Also, who wants to do the honors of starting a 2026 thread?
-
Better west coast ridging across the board last night. That made a world of difference on the outlook for cold on the east coast. Let’s see if we can keep the positive trends going.
-
Me during the great blizzard of 26 (speak it into existence) .
-
One of these days I’m going to sit outside by a fire with a winter storm warning and verification on the ground. When it happens, you’ll never catch me taking it for granted again.
-
I definitely agree there. We’re in some serious uncharted territory rn. We joke about the models being garbage but this is the first year I’ve seen even ensembles be largely clueless into the mid range.
