BooneWX

For what it’s worth, Cosgrove and Bam are in the same boat. Cosgrove has been saying look out for mid-late Jan since early fall.

I like Bam’s thinking the most. If you didn’t watch today’s LR video on YouTube, give it a watch. This is likely to be transient warmth followed by transient cold we’re seeing show up. @wncsnowis spot on with Bam’s comments. The pattern isn’t supportive for sustained cold + moisture (right now). I still think we need to move the Aleutian pig before that comes. Luckily, as we move past that week 2 period of Jan, we may finally get the help we need in that department with some tropical forcing.

That would align with the MJO progression

Euro op, the ai ops and to a degree, even the gfs picked up on it before the ensembles. Quite jarring to see.

lol. Weather can humble even the most arrogant folks.

Overrated torch and Friday is trending towards 40s. .

You indeed called the potential early on. I hope McDowell gets 20”.

Aligns with Bam’s original forecast for the period into and after new years. He’s now saying Jan 7th is a date that needs to be circled on the east coast.

Are we wedging out of Friday’s heat wave? .

It’s the trashFS but not gonna lie, that happy hour run was fun.

What does everyone want? Don’t tell me a foot+, that’s obvious. Give me something more attainable. I’ll start: I would love about 6” of snow with a delayed warm nose that delivers a 1” blanket of sleet on top. Sledding for days on the ice sheet with my daughter and brutal cold on the backside.

Jan 22 had a very fun miller b

Next week looks downright chilly

I agree but we’re not looking at what I’d call a true -PNA. A ridge centered over Montana can work all the same. It’s a -PNA on paper because it wouldn’t be centered right over the west coast and it’s not a particularly sharp ridge.

A lot of Baja lows in 12z. Wonder if we could kick one east.