BooneWX

I don’t disagree and I was certainly happy to see the storm at the gulf coast play out. I think everyone’s frame of view is just relative to climo. As @wncsnowalluded to: I grew up in a foothillls era where missing snow in a season was a glaring anomaly. Now it’s sort of expected. Just a different time!

Proud to announce I have acquired.02 inches of rain

Correction, the gulf has had more snow than us in 3 years combined. I’m going to go ahead and admit it without apologizing to my dear brethren down east and to the south. I am seeking a 1035+ HP in Ohio/NY with a robust miller B or a Miller A with a track 50 miles inland from the coast this winter.

I do think the mountains fair well this season. It could be hell in between cold shots but the pattern likely favors a lot of nw flow action with brief cool downs. The lakes are extremely warm compared to normal which will delay if not prevent them from icing over.

42.8° this morning in my neck of the woods

Some thoughts: - Extreme swings this winter. Moreso than usual. I think a cold tap will exist in the Hudson Bay, which fits the enso and overall long range pattern. With that being said, I think the SER will have its moments of rage as well. Last year had quite a bit of temperature stability for most in the eastern conus, but I think we see a lot of days that get into the 60s, followed by 2-3 days in the 30s/40s in quick succession. - I.e. Blocking over the Atlantic doesn’t appear to be favored, so that’s why I think my last sentence will be true. - As always, this will be a critical matchmaking process with moisture and cold. Last year, we were spoiled with a favorable upper level pattern quite a bit, which made the matchmaking odds better, but some still weren’t able to cash in.

I’m just going to enjoy it for now. 50s and 5pm sunsets will be here soon enough.

Asheville-Nov 2 Charlotte- Nov 12 Raleigh- November 10

I don’t have the link but I saw a post yesterday showing year over year trends in snowpack over Siberia and northern Canada. It appears it’s a bit better than normal. I put little stock in enso and upper atmospheric patterns until we get closer to climo but that’s one early indicator I’ve always believed in. We’ve struggled the past few years with cold snaps modifying too much before they make it this far. Every little bit of sea ice and snowpack in the great north will help.

The EF-5 drought has been broken. .

Not even sweating it. We couldn’t make wall to wall cold for almost the entire winter work out, last year.

48° this morning!

Huge win for all of us if the trends this evening are correct. Seems like the slower organization of PTC9 and the rapid ramp up for Humberto are starting to get sniffed out. Hopefully it feels that influence more than the ULL. I’ll never forget everyone thinking the ULL last year would tug Helene from Tallahassee to Chattanooga and we saw that model bias get exposed in an unfortunate manner but maybe this time “fortunately” is the word??

Charlotte stations are doing the same. The setup has alarmingly bad potential.

Local western NC talk here: a lot to track and a lot to determine, but if the circulation meanders into SC, it’s another terrible scenario for an area still reeling from Helene. Easterly, upslope flow and a steady fetch of moisture from the Atlantic…not good. We’ve luckily had very dry antecedent conditions but that can change rapidly with plenty of convective activity expected ahead of the circulation.