BooneWX

The great southern winter storm of 26

Godspeed to anyone in the freezing rain sector of this storm

Hoooooooooly euro run

Hell has frozen over, we’re going to have near perfect agreement with the GFS and EURO

Incoming on the euro

Well the Euro AI just came south, led by it noticing that CAD is a thing

Absolutely stupid GEFS run. Make sure you’re seated when you pull it up.

This is a completely different animal imo. Last year the signal was loud but also obvious early on that anyone further east than the mid south was hoping for strung out northern energy to pay dividends. None of that bs this time! This from an analog standpoint is 100% how you get a memorable significant impact from the plains to the eastern seaboard.

This as well. This isn’t my bias but an absolute fact that deterministic models at range never account for CAD correctly. I’d expect we’ll see it under modeled until that Wed/ thurs window.

I’m not banking on any model. None have done well

Amazing volatility despite the overall consistency in the signal. Ensembles incrementally dropping south on the physics models and the exact opposite on the AI models. This storm will either crown a new king or signify that more learning and work will need to be done.

Grit is favoring a hybrid miller a/b with a classic mess in the foothills

What sucks: most AI guidance being an ice storm What doesn’t suck: Google DeepMind (#1 model), says WNC gets Dec 2018 redo

Speaking through a NC lens mostly: I think at this point I feel pretty confident in verifying some sort of winter storm across the region this weekend but man are the red flags apparent. AI models have been outperforming the globals and to no surprise (or with our luck), of course they’re north with the coldest air and snow as the warm nose rages during the event. I’m not sold on that being the final solution, but if we get into tonight/tomorrow morning and it’s looking the same, we might be screwed. The AI models have been very locked in from day 4/5 on this winter. They have struggled a bit with a warm bias but generally, they nail the footprint in the medium-short range. I still think at worst, this is a sleet fest for most of the state. Last thought: for someone this will be an ice storm for the ages. Idc if the HP is over upstate NY, Ottawa, Iowa, whatever. It’s going to be somewhere in a favorable position and it’s going to be strong. This favors an abnormally large area of mixed precip and stupidly low temps being fed by a steady pump of cold, dry air. Remember, freezing rain is self limited if the cad is in-situ, but not when it’s an anchored HP to the north. Latent heat release can’t compete with that much caa. We’re talking nightmare type of stuff. Sometimes it helps if the precip is heavy, but in the mid 20s, that won’t matter either.

Do not get excited Boone, do not get excited Boone. You’ve been hurt too many times. .