BooneWX

The models giveth the models taketh

No one should be giving up. These are the same trash models that said it would be 75 today.

Bam has a good pull you away from the cliff update on YouTube this morning

23 here. Quite the whiplash from Saturday.

Poking around the resort cams this morning, I’m currently watching snow fall at Buckeye Lake near Beech Mtn. Thing is - these dendrites are super large. Like I truly don’t know if I’ve ever seen flakes that large with a temp of 11°. Anyone else seeing it at their location?

Fab Feb your table is ready

It could be right but we had one bad suite. For now it’s a blip not a trend.

Sheesh. That was the worst overnight suite in a long time. Let’s see what 12z brings. Idk if I’ve ever seen the run to run changes we have lately.

I’m at the point where I think there will be a major east coast storm between the 7th and 10th. It remains to be seen on who misses out. I think the mid-Atlantic north will be particularly favored this first time but idk. We could get a stout HP and get hammered as well. The -NAO just continues to impress on the models. Odds of getting that damming high are up from normal.

One uptrend I’ve seen today is that the ensembles have thrown some haymakers in individual runs. Plenty of duds but some insane runs mixed in as well. Goes to show just how high ceiling *could* be. The southern jet cranking really opens the door for some bombs.

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I definitely think we’ll have to endure a brief mild period while that +PNA builds. Gotta hope in the immediate long range that our -NAO bullies the pattern a bit. I think it could but the Ohio Valley to the Northeast are certainly favored at the moment.

Euro is very close to burying the upper south east on 12z at 1/8…. Light event verbatim on the op but boy was it close to crushing everyone.

It’s the GEFS that I trash, yes, but interesting to see the ensemble members spitting out some absolute bangers in that 1/9 range. Euro AI with a nice I-85 storm in that range as well.

We’re building towards cross polar flow on almost the entire 12z suite