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BlunderStorm

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  1. BlunderStorm
    May have a few hours somewhere around the realm of 12-15 MPH sustained intermittently with maybe some gusts in the 20s. That's the vibe I got from the NAM and RGEM at least. Per usual the eastern valley alongside the base of the blue ridge is a little more impressive.
  2. BlunderStorm
    RGEM Rolling.
  3. BlunderStorm
    18z NAM Low placement in the upper midwest is further south than 12z at 24 and is seemingly slower. Will see what that does downstream.
  4. BlunderStorm
    I would be elated if even 1/3rd of what the Canadian is showing came to fruition.
  5. BlunderStorm
    12z Euro pops the low over NETN and SWVA.
  6. BlunderStorm
    Yeah, you're in the right forum haha... Welcome aboard! It's good to have a fellow southwest Virginian in this neck of the woods! As for snowfall I would say things are looking fairly optimistic but there is a threat of the low pressure overrunning us and shifting the heaviest snowfall to our west. It's hard to say at this point.
  7. BlunderStorm
    0z Euro Control.
  8. BlunderStorm
    Here are the 20 GEFS ensembles for 06z.
  9. BlunderStorm
    000 FXUS64 KMRX 220841 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 3:41 AM EST Tue Dec 22 2020 JB .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)... An active extended period with two main systems. One during the Christmas Eve/Christmas Day and the next one at the end of the extended. Will focus most of this discussion on the Christmas system which will potentially be quite impactful. The main messages are the following: 1) Strong upper dynamics will tighten the pressure gradient across the southern Appalachians late Wednesday afternoon through around mid-morning Thursday. Models agree with a strong 850mb jet of 50- 60kts setting the stage for a Mountain Wave High Wind Event for Mountains and Foothills. 2) Strong boundary layer southerly jet will also pull abundant moisture into a strengthen upper jet dynamics to produce a 6 hours period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Isolated runoff issues are possible with localized flooding. Not expecting a widespread flooding event. 3) Strong cold air advection behind frontal passage between 12-16Z Thursday will allow rain to change to snow quickly in the afternoon. A window of light to moderate snow is expected Thursday afternoon and evening, some locally heavy northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Accumulating snow is expected especially areas along and north and east of interstate 40 and 75, as well as, the mountains. 4) Strong cold air advection Thursday will drop temperatures quickly in the afternoon with very cold airmass for Thursday night through Friday night. Temperatures will be some 15 to 20 degrees below normal for Christmas day. Now for the particulars... For Wednesday, upper and surface ridging moves east with increasing boundary layer jet producing a mild day with increasing cloud cover, mainly mid and upper levels. Strengthening frontal boundary over western Tennessee late and continued ridging in the Carolinas will begin to produce high winds late in the Mountains and Foothills. For Wednesday night, A southern and northern stream jets will deepen a long-wave trough across the mid-section of the nation. Strong upper jet forcing will produce strong AGV/Omega along the frontal boundary. The 850mb jet will be near 50-60kts with good 850mb inversion to induce strong Mountain Wave High Wind event across the Mountains and Foothills. The 850mb Omega shows strong subsidence in this area depicting the affects of the Mountain waves. Have issued a High Wind Watch for these areas. For Thursday and early Thursday night, the brunt of the jet forcing and strong Omega within the increasing elevated frontal boundary (500-700mb) will produce widespread rain. Some of the rain will be moderate to locally heavy. The strong jet forcing will greatly strengthening the frontal boundary with strong cold air advection changing rain to snow across the entire area. However, the best mid- level Omega, negative EPV of -0.5 to almost -1, and affects of strengthening surface cyclogenesis will be across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. These areas will likely see the heaviest of the snow accumulations with some banding of the snow possible for a brief period of time. Significant snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible there and far east Tennessee Mountains. Snowfall of 1/2 to 1 1/2 inch possible across the northern Plateau into the central Valley. Little to no accumulations elsewhere. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for these areas if the system persist for later runs. For Christmas day, Snow showers or flurries will remain possible across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee, and Mountains. Another spoke of cold air aloft will also aid in the production of snow showers northeast. Additional light accumulations possible across the higher elevations. Main weather story will be the abnormally cold temperatures. The cold temperatures will persist Friday night and Saturday morning, but moderate for Saturday into Sunday as upper trough moves east. For late Sunday through Monday, another system will move into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. A mixture of snow and rain possible early, then changing to all rain. DH
  10. BlunderStorm
    06z RGEM trending up for most areas! Western areas around Nashville east til the plateau would have got off better if not for some sleet. As an added bonus the run ends Christmas afternoon with widespread snowshowers still all over the plateau and NETN.
  11. BlunderStorm
    06z NAM trending up!
  12. BlunderStorm
    It would seem from this point going forward we have two camps. One with the Euro/Ukie/Icon and the other with the GFS-NAM/CMC-RGEM with the delineation being how quickly the arctic air catches the frontal moisture. EDIT: I just realized this probably looks like a cluster#### on mobile. xD VS CHRISTMAS CAGE MATCH
  13. BlunderStorm
  14. BlunderStorm
    Summed up the Euro sticks to it's guns for 0z. MSLP is very similar with the leeside low really only getting it's act together in WV. The head of the front remains well ahead of the 540 line making it hard for anything wintry to really get going until it's well into the mountains and hitting NETN.
  15. BlunderStorm
    If only Dr. Schmaybe could live up to our expectations... Let's see what 0z has for us!
  16. BlunderStorm
    Clinch Mountain the Fun Killer. Considering this one is approaching at another angle it's unlikely we get a repeat per se.
  17. BlunderStorm
    https://ibb.co/wNq9B68 @John1122 thought I would put this up here for anyone interested.
  18. BlunderStorm
    Oof. GFS a little warmer and it develops the leeside low in WV instead of NC. Could be a lot worse though...imo. Maybe the Euro will meet it in the middle.
  19. BlunderStorm
    ...and so the model consolidation begins just like clockwork. Also yeah I noticed I got slammed but didn't wanna rub it in.
  20. BlunderStorm
    With energy associated with our system reaching the west coast we should probably get a clearer picture with 18z and 0z. Granted I doubt we have the best readings in the Yukon compared to Washington lol. Expect models to cave soon.
  21. BlunderStorm
    Not quite this hopeless but felt like sharing again.
  22. BlunderStorm
    12z and 0z comparison.
  23. BlunderStorm
    Surface temperature gradient behind the front is more gradual at 72 compared to 12z. Not a good initial sign.
  24. BlunderStorm
    Hmm... Perhaps... more potent cold = stronger front = front dives further down in latitude = low develops in more favorable location = ?
  25. BlunderStorm
    0z ICON at noon on Christmas Day for anyone curious.
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