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BlunderStorm

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Everything posted by BlunderStorm

  1. BlunderStorm
    I actually like the 6z RGEM solution, no one walks away with the jackpot but everyone in or adjacent to Tennessee walks home with something appreciable. The ICON tells a similar story but with a Bristol Bullseye and generally higher QPF!
  2. BlunderStorm
    The NAM seems determined to transform the slider into an app runner before transferring to the atlantic running in conflict with the globals and other mid to short range model solutions. Appreciable ice accumulation would be a concern through effectively all of the eastern valley, especially those counties flanking the blue ridge. It would be a hell of a coup no one is rooting for. Echoing fountainguy it does seem somewhat more favorable for the east from the added moisture though central and western TN see a modest decline in snowfall (yall are looking great regardless rn).
  3. BlunderStorm
    It has been a decade since I have witnessed such continuous snowfall in Winter. If flurries persist into tomorrow afternoon there will not have been a clear day between the storm on the 5th and the upcoming one on the 10th. There is no rationale but the conditions feel perfect for a big one. The ground is in prime condition with primary roads intermittently turning white within moments of a modest snow shower passing.
  4. BlunderStorm
    Yeah, I'll take the flakes with near 100% insurance of all snow but its slimmer pickings north of the primary axis of precip. We gotta hope for the light and fluffy high ratio stuff.
  5. BlunderStorm
    Tropical tidbits snowfall maps fail to account for sleet and freezing rain when depicting snow accumulation. The GFS is depicting quite the mess down there.
  6. BlunderStorm
    Earlier, I took a predawn jebwalk to appreciate the snowfall and wake myself up. The atmosphere was surreal. Like the rest of yall in the eastern valley we've been seeing on and off light snow showers since the system passed through a couple days ago. It's refreshing to see persistent fields of white with how last winter played out.
  7. BlunderStorm
    As of midnight it's back down to 23 and I've recorded an additional 1.1 inches of fluffy snow. Intermittent snow showers and flurries are continuing to fall. Temperatures never exceeded 38 so the initial snowpack managed to survive the thaw and cold rain transforming into a sort of half ice half snow concrete an inch or two deep. The weekend slider however it may playout is going to have a perfect surface to start accumulating with forecast temps staying below freezing for the week.
  8. BlunderStorm
    We've got about a quarter inch of ice accumulation on most surfaces. The temperature is currently hovering at 32F with the snowpack from earlier holding steady for now. Zr is mostly light but we had a few more moderate bands pass through.
  9. BlunderStorm
    Us southwest Virginians are honorary Tennessee Valley members . I always saw the sub forum boundaries like this:
  10. BlunderStorm
    aaaaand just like that after a few hours I am standing at an approximate snow depth of 4.5" and it's a light drizzle at 28. The atmospheric column must be wild. The only saving grace is that the rain is light and any higher rates would probably be snow again (for now)
  11. BlunderStorm
    After 30 minutes of virga, from 11am and onward it has been absolutely ripping perfect heavy nickel and dime snowfall at over an inch per hour. It aint gonna last but my goodness is it a beautiful sight.
  12. BlunderStorm
    ETSU an hour ago: About half an inch remains from the first burst of snow in the grass. Will be interesting to see how the snow handles the toasty ground for the rest of the night.
  13. BlunderStorm
    As a personal anecdote I know my family in Honaker doesn't have any power. Those outage maps you posted earlier would likely indicate it's just as bad down in Scott co. Hope he's alright.
  14. BlunderStorm
    Stay safe folks. A Flash Flood Emergency just got called over Johnson City so that was a decent alarm clock. Fortunately power is holding steady. https://x.com/NWSMorristown/status/1839667235289522400?t=ZTDwJPRajrSxHkf4gXFPvA&s=19
  15. BlunderStorm
    Lots of activity bubbling up north of Beryl's center. I wonder if as the core unravels this morning we could see the center of low pressure shift over to the north some?
  16. BlunderStorm
    That and we have been in a lengthy recon drought without any reliable radar sources, it's pretty much been see what GOES-16 says for the past while. Still Beryl has shown some signs she is mortal and that bears some limited good for Jamaica however hellish it will still be.
  17. BlunderStorm
    Here is the latest radar return from Barbados, it looks dare I say practically complete with the EWRC...
  18. BlunderStorm
    Beryl is beginning to show up on Barbados radar. https://www.barbadosweather.org/Radars/LeafScripts/BMSRadarProducts.php
  19. BlunderStorm
    Just look at Beryl intensify on IR.
  20. BlunderStorm
    So if I am reading whatever this is correctly it is projecting a 50% chance of having max winds intensification equal to +45 knots at the 36 hour range marking 120 knot / 138 mph winds. Roughly when it is between Barbados and the windward islands... Yikes.
  21. BlunderStorm
    Today marks 8 days since the last rainfall, 5 of which reached 90F. The grass remains in decent shape but the drought should begin to set in if we don't see relief here in the next few days.
  22. BlunderStorm
    Getting some of the Aurora in 5-10 minute bursts at 37 N.
  23. BlunderStorm
    With razor thin margins like that you may want to reconsider. The exact borders of the eclipse path are hard to ascertain for sure. This article may interest you, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2024/03/30/why-your-total-solar-eclipse-map-is-suddenly-wrong/?sh=a1b40e43d7d4 Also here is the map by John Irwin with the slightly altered eclipse path parameters. Whether he's correct, who knows. https://www.besselianelements.com/path-of-the-2024-april-8th-total-solar-eclips/
  24. BlunderStorm
    I've narrowed it down with my family to 2 remaining reservations. Either I'll be in southern Illinois/Missouri (Carbondale/Cape Girardeau) or I'll be in Indiana (Shelbyville/Bloomington). The former looks marginally better than the latter but at the expense of added drive time.
  25. BlunderStorm
    Thunder and lightning in JC! Some decent gusts too, wish I had a station down here.
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