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Everything posted by BlunderStorm
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11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
BlunderStorm replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
As the final total for the 12th I recorded 2.2 inches with flurries still falling on the measurement tile. In the grass I measured as much as 4 inches in some places. Currently I'm sitting at 16 degrees with the possibility of reaching single digits for a low tonight. It was nice to see old man winter finally return. I'm glad most folks in our region got some (or a lot) of flakes as well. Hopefully this sets the trend for the upcoming winter. -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
BlunderStorm replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
And just like that I've been getting slammed with NW flow snow for the past hour under the radar. Needless to say no final measurements will be taken yet. Currently in a snowsquall. -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
BlunderStorm replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
After 5 in the morning I crashed and decided I would just wake'n see... and wow, I have to say this system did not disappoint. Currently sitting exactly at 1.8" on my level tile surface I use to scientifically measure. In the grass I got as much as 3"+. As of now there's still some nw flow action under the radar so another 0.2" to round the total out is completely possible. -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
BlunderStorm replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Currently in the middle of it at 31F. 0.25" of snow already on the grass with it beginning to take hold on pavement. -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
BlunderStorm replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Currently in a dry slot in southwest Virginia just as the temps flipped to favorable conditions for snow. (Currently Flurrying) 33F as of now. As per the radar though it looks like things are reloading for a good couple hours of solid snow. -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
BlunderStorm replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Alright, guys it's great to be back after a busy day to enjoy this hobby we all share! Here's to an early start to the season! Unless anyone objects I see no problem submitting observations. Any more reports on the snow in West Tennessee? Currently sitting at 51 here with a drizzle. -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
BlunderStorm replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
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11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
BlunderStorm replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
We're seeing support for significant moisture behind the front across the board when it comes to models (at least for eastern areas). Can it all be wrong? Maybe, climo is a force to be reckoned with. Perhaps someone could provide some insight? -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
BlunderStorm replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Well, once we get to around 12-18 hours before an event, that's when I switch over to watch and see mode by beginning to monitor the radar and reported temps. It helps to watch the models but at some point reality has to take precedence. It appears that time will soon arrive. -
With significant post-frontal snow looking increasingly possible for the northern and mid tiers of the Tennessee Valley under current modeling, going forward I figured I'd start ourselves a little thread dedicated to it and the potential early start to the winter season!
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
BlunderStorm replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Would it be a bad idea to create a forecast/nowcast/obs topic? A whiff is still very much on the table but...- 574 replies
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- early winter
- leaves changing
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
BlunderStorm replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
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Yep, I love it already!
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Well looks like I'm recording a trace for Halloween to start the season! And to think 8 hours ago it was in the mid-70s (now mid-30s) What a day of weather!
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After the snowstorm of December 2018 (I call it the Great Snow-Flop). I am more than familiar with downsloping especially from Clinch Mountain. What could have been 12-18" of potential snow was but only 3" of sleet mixed with snow. I never analyzed the exact conditions that resulted in the downslope event but it still crosses my mind from time to time and in most major winter storms this does not occur. As for observations my area has experienced a drop of 17 degrees in the past two hours. 59 as of me typing this. A good old fall cold front is always fun.
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
BlunderStorm replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
For all the cold in mid-latitudes across North America, It would seem the polar latitudes torch well into mid-Nov. It would seem the cold air is displaced as a result of the upper level pattern in the Bering Strait. I'm not the most qualified to speculate but perhaps should this verify It could be considered a short term gain and long term loss. (If cold air could be thought of as a limited resource that regenerates?) Regardless I'm looking forward to the weeks ahead weather-wise echoing what Carver said.- 574 replies
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Today has been the quentessential fall day. The leaves are turning in a foggy Misty day in the upper 40s and low 50s in October. I think most of us can agree that today has been such a welcome change.
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57F in Honaker this evening. The cold front has been a welcome relief. Over the last few hours 0.75 inches of rain has fell.
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
BlunderStorm replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
A few decent showers over the past couple of weeks have saved my area at least somewhat from the fate Jax has met. Though as he said this year is not too great for fall foliage. Hopefully with a couple shots of cool/cold air in the next two weeks we can see some decent color before all is said and done. Recent modeling remains encouraging with the transient pattern bringing surprises. Although it is perhaps less hawkish with the Monday front in more recent runs. (at least for the eastern half of the TN-Valley) Regardless, this switch up delivers what we all need most RAIN.- 574 replies
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I'm all for another Frankenstorm. Time to reel it in 16 days out!
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Reporting in to say I'm finally getting some rain up this way. The grass has had a tawny color for the past few weeks. On the bright side I had very little mowing to do. On a side-note my summer hibernation is over.
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Stuck in the haze of summer I have fell silent on the forum. Just checking in to say "Hi I'm still here and lurking" haha. While for the most part it's been pretty dull weather wise up this way I've observed a handful of borderline severe storms. I may at some point later today send a couple of pictures I took of wall clouds.
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