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Everything posted by BlunderStorm
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
BlunderStorm replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
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- early winter
- leaves changing
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Yep, I love it already!
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Well looks like I'm recording a trace for Halloween to start the season! And to think 8 hours ago it was in the mid-70s (now mid-30s) What a day of weather!
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After the snowstorm of December 2018 (I call it the Great Snow-Flop). I am more than familiar with downsloping especially from Clinch Mountain. What could have been 12-18" of potential snow was but only 3" of sleet mixed with snow. I never analyzed the exact conditions that resulted in the downslope event but it still crosses my mind from time to time and in most major winter storms this does not occur. As for observations my area has experienced a drop of 17 degrees in the past two hours. 59 as of me typing this. A good old fall cold front is always fun.
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
BlunderStorm replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
For all the cold in mid-latitudes across North America, It would seem the polar latitudes torch well into mid-Nov. It would seem the cold air is displaced as a result of the upper level pattern in the Bering Strait. I'm not the most qualified to speculate but perhaps should this verify It could be considered a short term gain and long term loss. (If cold air could be thought of as a limited resource that regenerates?) Regardless I'm looking forward to the weeks ahead weather-wise echoing what Carver said.- 574 replies
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Today has been the quentessential fall day. The leaves are turning in a foggy Misty day in the upper 40s and low 50s in October. I think most of us can agree that today has been such a welcome change.
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57F in Honaker this evening. The cold front has been a welcome relief. Over the last few hours 0.75 inches of rain has fell.
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
BlunderStorm replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
A few decent showers over the past couple of weeks have saved my area at least somewhat from the fate Jax has met. Though as he said this year is not too great for fall foliage. Hopefully with a couple shots of cool/cold air in the next two weeks we can see some decent color before all is said and done. Recent modeling remains encouraging with the transient pattern bringing surprises. Although it is perhaps less hawkish with the Monday front in more recent runs. (at least for the eastern half of the TN-Valley) Regardless, this switch up delivers what we all need most RAIN.- 574 replies
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I'm all for another Frankenstorm. Time to reel it in 16 days out!
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Reporting in to say I'm finally getting some rain up this way. The grass has had a tawny color for the past few weeks. On the bright side I had very little mowing to do. On a side-note my summer hibernation is over.
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Stuck in the haze of summer I have fell silent on the forum. Just checking in to say "Hi I'm still here and lurking" haha. While for the most part it's been pretty dull weather wise up this way I've observed a handful of borderline severe storms. I may at some point later today send a couple of pictures I took of wall clouds.
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Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
BlunderStorm replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
If I got such as a flurry of what was depicted I'd have a smile. No other globals I've seen support it but what're you gonna do. The global ensemble system does throw some of us in the far northeast a bone but it's mainly focused to the blue ridge and east. Other than the obvious issues of this taking place in broad daylight during April of all months it seems the storm will more than likely stray too far east to significantly affect us. Let's cross our fingers and hope for more support from model guidance. -
Bump. Of note I have a few more flurries to report so that's something I suppose and yesterday I started up the old push mower which had lied dormant since November. "Oh spring how I welcome and dread you so..."
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Ok, that is just too cool! Also currently 31 and a few flurries fell so it counts as an observation.
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Well, as little as it is I am glad to have awoken to a solid dusting this morning. I just hope I can report over a foot of snow as the bare minimum for my location this season before all is said and done. A little less than an inch to go!
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Per, Carver's request and seeing that today is the first day of meteorological Spring I figured we might as well get a thread going. Here's to hoping for warm and sunny days ahead!
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Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019
BlunderStorm replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
ELO's Concerto for a rainy day really fits the current mood... -
Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019
BlunderStorm replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I just want a feb 2015 redux....sigh. -
Starting the deluge with a bit of a mix at 35 degrees. A trace it is!
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I just recently heard some thunder so that's a first for the year. As for the snow yesterday I guess I'll pin it at 0.2 from a close friends guesstimate looking at his backyard...
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Frustratingly I awake to a grey sky. On the ground I see a little melting snow on the ground. I've almost entirely missed it. Radar indicates it did in fact snow for a time but I have no way of knowing how much.
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Now it's 37 with no precip falling. 5 to go maybe 1 or 2 degrees til mixing.
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