Exactly my thoughts. I85 and points north/west unless we get lucky and somehow don't have to fight rain and 45 degree temperatures at the onset of precipitation
Euro looks great imo. It's always a huge plus when the Euro jumps on board with wintry precip. And I hope Lookout is right about the warm nose being modeled too strong
That LP in 87' looks really close to the SC coast. Curious as to how that produced a snow event for areas south and east of I85? Stronger cold air source west of the Apps? Thanks Grit
If I'm not mistaken It has a lot to do with the topography. As the low spins it's hard to get cold air in fast enough when the cold air source is coming from the north and western side of the apps as opposed to an eastern cold air source damming event
If I remember correctly, last year before our January event the GFS sniffed out our warm nose 24-48 hours in advance. It showed it on the SC GA border sneaking up into the southern part of upstate SC.
Edit: it could have been the NAM I don't remember
I've seen this time and time again. Climo says anywhere north and west of I85 have a chance to see flakes fly. South and east, well, you know the drill. Especially in December. I mean come on, it's a struggle even in mid January.
Temps won't be an issue. It will make its own cold air
Someone mentioned a Lee side trough? I can remember 7'ish years ago a Lee trough set up here in the upstate and we must have raked in 4-5 inches with temps hovering around 40 degrees. It was ridiculous
Wicked lightning, heavy rain and a few rumbles of thunder here in Simpsonville. This Winter has been litty!! Mountain real estate just doubled. RIP snow and cold. Al Gore was right!