SnowDawg

It is essentiallly two separate systems, one diving in from the northern stream and one sliding through the gulf. To fill the gap you need the two to phase. If it does it'll go boom, but miss the phase and the northern stream energy simply squashes our gulf wave, thus suppression.

Yep, that's why selfishly I would prefer the Euro solution to avoid the phase problem alltogther. But I know that does little good for anyone outside of CAD areas. Normally I'd feel bad for the lowland crew that regularly go years without snow and pull for a big boardwide monster storm, but after the longest snow drought in my life I'll admit I don't care what happens as long as I see snow lol

That northern vort being stretched and strung out over the top will never work. A piece of it needs to dig and phase, like the GFS was showing yesterday or it needs to do what the Euro did last night and let the northern piece swing through ahead of our wave. This lowers heights in front of the storm and let's our CAD high anchor in, and gives the stj wave more room to amplify some. The GFS and Euro are way apart on the timing of the southern wave with the GFS being over 24 hours faster. They may even be keying in on different pieces of energy. Long ways to go...

If I had to pick a preferred solution it'd definitely be the Euro. It removes the phase from the equation, let's that northern stream energy clear the playing field for a perfectly timed CAD high. A much simpler solution with less bust potential. Too bad there's still so long to go lol

GFS is proof this doesn't work without the phase. If we can't just get rid of that northern piece alltogther, then we have to get at least a partial phase. Otherwise it hanging out overtop leads to that disjointed look, with one low in the gulf and another in the lakes/Ohio valley wrecking our thermals. As we already knew from the GEFS this was in the range of possible outcomes. Key will be seeing which scenario the ensembles start to converge around over the next few days.

That northern stream piece diving down is what's wrapping the cold air in to the storm. Phased a little later this run, thus less coverage on the snow. Ideally it'd happen even a little quicker than the 12z run.

There is a lot of support for a storm system in that time period it's just right now there's a mixed bag between wintry members, missed phases, and suppression. With the latter being the most favored at the moment. Given the likely need for at least partial phasing for this to work, unlikely to see stable solutions at this long of a lead time.

If that phase could happen just a bit quicker/further west it would've been all snow from the beginning, instead of the rain to snow look. All unimportant details at this range though. Now I'd like to see a significant number of ensemble members start to solidify around a single threat.

That and a whole lot more. Big changes all over the map by like hour 120. Run to run variability is nothing new though. Stick with the ensembles past 5 days.

Still one of my favorite winter weather periods in the last 10 years. Heavy Sleet/ZR storm on the 16th. Then back to back snows less than 10 days later.

That pesky low in the lakes look we've seen a million times in the last two years. Need that northern stream energy to either dig a lot more SW and phase with our system, or just not be there at all and allow the highs to bridge over the top and give us more of a CAD look out front.

I have little doubt that we get a colder pattern with a few chances, but I'm not overly optimistic at this point in getting a good board wide system. Looks like a lot of late phasing messes, or missed phase suppressed southern stream waves. Maybe the NAO isn't being felt enough, and if the flow backs up a better phase could happen.

Confluence from the 50/50 will be key. We need an amped slow moving 50/50 in the right spot to help enhance our HP. Can at least hope this is a case of undermodeled CAD, and in the short range our HP and confluence will improve.

This setup for the 4th-6th is an extreme setup with high end snowfall potential forum wide, but it's also a very touchy one. Could be a situation of either a big winter storm or nothing at all, with very little in between.

6z developed a nice stout PNA ridge near the end in response to the Aleutian low. And 12z has a trough stuck west of the Rockies with a central pacific ridge. Fantasy land so it doesn't matter but it at least shows us the features we need to be looking for. Decent north Atlantic blocking looks like a given, but as always which way will the pacific go?

Could it be? High pressures and southern storm systems moving in tandem? The last couple years had me thinking that low in the lakes was a permanent feature lol

Yeah nice day here. 48 and partly sunny at times. Front just refusing to budge.

Looks like I won the overnight torch-off. Went to sleep at 33 with light virga overhead, woke up to 44 and drizzle. Still rising and up above 45 now.

I miss good flat west to east southern sliders...

Historically the 50/50 and a gulf low that actually phases and bombs out as it leaves is the most important ingredients. But it really does seem lately that without the CAD high, it feels downright impossible to score a significant area wide storm.

We can switch places for now I guess. Cause I've been trying to be really positive the last month or so, but this one's got me down in the dumps right now with every model out there pretty much saying if I see anything it's gonna be rain. Missing this one will put me at two full calendar years without measurable snow after previously never having had a single winter without at least a trace.

Definitely not loving the 40s and rain starting to show up but I'll try not to panic for now. Need precip to move in by Monday morning to help lock in thermals I think.

It amazes me that these can be that different at just 144 lol. Euro doesn't have the high pressure out front over the Atlantic or overtop in SE Canada. Problem is we don't know which one is the crazy one.

Yeah the ingredients are there for a big storm with the second wave if we can get it to come together right. I think the GFS is a little too north with its track right now given the CAD high and decent confluence from the first storm.

At this point I'm more interested in what we've got to do to get under that initial finger of precip. The trend is just not our friend with regards to healthy cyclogenesis in time for western areas. For what feels like the thousandth year in a row the northern stream continues to just entirely overwhelm the pattern. Someone must've forgot to let it know about the El Niño year.