SnowDawg

I actually had to drive down to Habersham earlier to help my grandparents that got stuck. The drive back was horrid, took probably an hour and a half. The Turnerville area just before dropping into Tallulah Falls was the most I saw along the way. They were easily in the 5-6 range then, and this was an hour ago so likely a little more. But we got stuck there for a long while behind an 18-wheeler crash that closed the road across the bridge into Rabun. Ended up having to leave the car at the end of my road once we got back home. Back here at my place probably sitting at just about 4-5 inches and still snowing lightly.

NWS Atlanta adjusting totals upwards a bit for North GA. Storm total 3-6 locally higher possible.

29/22. Been snowing steady for about 30 minutes or so now. Hoping to see it wet bulb down a degree or so. Temps been rising pretty steadily all morning.

A few miles southwest of Clayton, GA on Tiger Mountain.

False alarm! GSP finally came around. At least they didn't wait til it was halfway over this time lol

GSP lowered totals for NE GA Mtns... Clayton went from around an inch to 0. I mean what gives, cause even the warmest model with a known warm bias at its longest ranges doesn't agree. My forecast only has all snow for 1 hour, then mixing with rain, then all rain. Who knows they could be right, but I just don't see where they are getting it from.

Any significance to these light radar returns over Alabama and Mississippi tonight?

Gotten down to 29.3 with a dew point of 18. Wind still gusting around 10 mph at times, so not quite perfect conditions for radiational cooling.

I definitely am. This is all I had hoped for out of February, just a well timed wave within a short window of cold temps. My house sits at around 2400. I think the counties to my SW (Lumpkin, Pickens, Dawson, etc) may end up doing a bit better just because of earlier onset and better orientation for upslope enhancement. But I'll be happy if I can get at least 2 inches. Still will be below seasonal average, but it sure helps take the sting out of it.

GEFS has increased for like the 5th or 6th run in a row now.

Crazy how far apart them and GSP are for the mountain counties in NE GA. Here in Rabun GSP forecast is for up to an inch, while Atlanta is saying that lol

Dramatic increase in totals from the 12z run on Euro. That amount in that short of time here in the N GA Mtns just screams landslide threat over the next couple days with how saturated the soils already are.

I'm a little lost on why neither Greenville or Blacksburg has issued a flood watch. Not like the models haven't been showing the potential for days now or anything. FFC put theirs out yesterday. GSP said in their afternoon disco that they were waiting at least another forecast period before issuing one. Can't say that I see any reason for it though.

Amazing morning. Caught me completely off guard to say the least but I needed that. 400+ day snow less streak is officially over here in Clayton, GA.

Decent, but nothing that really sticks out as a legit threat yet. EPS looks better. But 2 weeks ago it was the opposite and we all know which ensemble won that fight.

Yeah the lack of HP is the real killer there. Still close enough to something to keep an eye on though for sure.

I don't remember the EPS looking anything like this during our last period of long range "threats". GEFS yes, but the EPS was pretty much telling us no from the jump outside of an off run here or there. I'm cautiously interested going forward.

Barely managed the slightest flurry in Clayton this morning. The highest elevations here in Rabun County up around Sky Valley have seen a dusting, but the rest of the county has been completely shutout so far. In my lifetime we've never not had any measurable snow in a winter. I can't imagine it actually finishing that way but I'm certainly not optimistic right now.

Euro looked great for the Northern NC Mtns next weekend.

Honestly feels fairly optimistic. I'm getting somewhat worried up here in the Mtns. Haven't had more than a skiff on the porch since December 2018, and that's at an elevation that averages 10-12 inches a year. The upcoming pattern is certainly better than where we've been as far as temps go, but it seems fairly hostile for snow because of the fast flow. Just gonna keep hoping climo eventually throws me a bone.

The EPS and the GEFS after the brief warmup. The warmup is happening but it doesn't seem long lasting for now. Let's try not to freak out over it until there's actually reason to, and the reload stops showing up. How strong or how long the reload is remains to be seen and is just a waiting game I suppose. This could all still go down the crapper and turn warm on us long term, but until it actually shows that I gleefully kiss this month long death ridge goodbye and welcome the new pattern.

Can't disagree with you there, if you're looking for dry it doesn't appear to be coming anytime soon. At least if we'd get some snow it'd be a slow melt and soak instead of all this runoff and mudslides we've been having.

I don't think it looks terrible. I mean at this point we pretty much know a brief warmup is coming after the cold shot, just gotta deal with it and move on. It does cool down again behind it though. And frankly, I'd like to just see an extended period of normal to slightly below. Here in the southern Apps, and even more so where you are than me, that plus good track and HP can deliver big time. Screw arctic cold, all that ever seems to do is dry us out. I'm tired of wildly swinging between death ridge and anomalous cold. Give me normal to slightly below with an active STJ, and I'll take my chances on climo working out in my favor.

28th storm left the Baja cutoff low behind this time so it's not a beast like at 18z. Hopefully as we get inside day 10 we'll start to see some ensemble support consolidate around that time frame.