SnowDawg

If this was an actual surface based LP storm in the gulf then I'd say suppression is a good thing because that's when we get our NW trends. But this is really just a thermal gradient pattern relying on SW flow to deliver moisture. Differences in the handling of the vort are what's causing the suppressed look.

Definitely has me concerned. It's 5 day verification scores are incredible right now and we get to around 5 days out tomorrow.

Every other model trends away from cutting off the energy in the SW and the Euro, which was leading the charge, trends toward it...

Yeah you're right. I was reacting purely to the GFS, which looks a little quick. And that's probably my favorite start time, IF it can come in heavy enough and lock in those morning low temps.

I've not posted in that thread yet because I refuse to participate in jinxing our best long range threat of the year lol

I would like the onset time to push further towards Thursday morning ideally to allow for some diurnal cooling as well as more time for CAA from the cold front that just passed. Starting around 10 pm Wed night, as others have mentioned, could result in wasting some snow on cooling the boundary.

Looks like the CMC, suppressed.

Decent jump on the GEFS mean as well. It also showed noticably less tendency to leave the wave behind on mean vorticity.

Nice step back in the right direction from the GFS. Would like to drive that frontal boundary just a tad further south before it stalls, but far too early for that level of detail. Given the pattern this is definitely the storm mode I'm hoping for. Stalled frontal boundary 100 miles or so south, with ample SW flow off the gulf, long duration event with no warm nose from an amped surface low. Given our lack of real cold air this year, I'd be scared of a big gulf low blasting us all with warm air. If it's gonna amp up, I hope it's late so it can get all the coastal folks and keep all of its warm air out over the Atlantic.

That's honestly amazing to me given the relative close proximity between us. Even the lower elevations here, down at the river near the SC border, have had at least 2 near 12 inch storms and a lot of 4 inch+ just since 2010. That Lee side screw zone running through GA/SC/NC is just a terrible thing.

Euro and EPS control continue to be in near lock step with one another. EPS mean is down just a bit, but at this range it's gonna jump around some so I wouldn't worry about it unless a downward trend over several runs shows up. But even then, all the ensembles spiraled downward in the medium range for this past weekend only to come back inside day 2-3.

I feel like in this pattern that is quite possibly the best look we could hope for board wide. Weak over running, followed by late coastal development, means literally no one has to deal with any warm air advection. If it bombed out earlier it'd screw the eastern zones, and if it lost the over running it'd screw us to the west. Can't imagine the mood on this board if such a region wide event were to go down.

Being in Athens at the time I hated that storm. Back in the Mtns now I'd love to have another go at it.

Yep, 850's and 925's both looked great throughout. No warm nose at all.

Possibly. I honestly don't know. People reference biases so much it's hard to tell which ones are real and which ones aren't anymore lol. There's definitely a window of potential, but as always we are threading some tiny needles.

GFS Ensemble largely supports the OP in the energy getting cutoff and left behind out west. 0z EPS for comparison. GFS very well may have the right idea here, it's just too early to tell.

The key difference I'm seeing is the energy getting cutoff in the SW, on the GFS, before moving east. This let's heights rise just ahead of it. Needs to come in nose down and spin up at the last second. Preferably just slightly earlier than 0z showed and it'd be a basically board wide crusher.

EPS control run is almost identical. And the EPS Mean is starting to make some noise. That shortwave not getting cutoff in the SW is a big key in giving this potential legs.

To be fair the Euro actually picked up the system from this past weekend quite a bit further out than that. I think 0z Euro on the 2nd was the first signs of snow in the interior southeast. It moved around a lot and the amounts went up and down after that, but it did at least pick up the "threat" at a decent lead time. But yeah inside day 3 is when things really solidified and all the guidance started to converge on the same solution.

That's so wild. Got to 49 here today with full on sunshine.

My favorite part of all of this is that a little over a week ago I officially threw in the towel on this winter and gave up hope. Then in an 8 day stretch most of my county has now hit seasonal average. Now if it'd just stop raining...

They did great in my book. I just used the advisories for Towns and White counties to judge what mine should have been while GSP was asleep at the wheel.

Back to a more moderate clip here now. Not really showing up on radar much, may be some upslope flow.

Heck they did it just yesterday morning in the smokies. Refused to put out an advisory until the event was well underway.

And that's 4-5 inches when 12 hours ago my forecast was for 0 inches and mostly rain. So, well done GSP, really prepared the public well for this one. I'd understand if the guidance was split yesterday. But by the 12z suite at the latest and probably even earlier, the models were absolutely locked in on what was going to happen here over North GA. I truly don't get how they missed it that bad at just a 12 hour lead time.