SnowDawg
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Everything posted by SnowDawg
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36.6/34.2 as of 12. Temps and Dew point fell nicely over last 30 minutes but as the rates slacked up temp went up half a degree and dew point went up 2 degrees. Frustrating.
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Last 20 minutes or so have changed to more sleet that's starting to build up on the porch, but definitely haven't seen a flake yet.
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Reports in Rabun county that the snow level is now around 2500 so shouldn't be long for me. Won't stick for a while though, still 36.5. Sky Valley at 3500 already has some accumulations.
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Nope. Just rain, 38 degrees. Sky Valley is 32 and snow but they sit at 3500 feet.
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2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.
SnowDawg replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
What's your temp up that way? -
Tiger, GA 39.6/36.5 Dew point just refused to budge over night, and I never really trust that it can drop efficiently under heavy rainfall. Basically throwing in the towel at this point. Looks like it'll mainly be 3000 feet and up in GA.
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Tiger, GA 42. 8/31.6 Temp basically steady, dew point rising....Not good. Really need some dry air here in the next 3-4 hours.
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Tiger GA. 43.5/31.3 Temp and dew point both dropping really slowly now. Starting to strongly doubt this one working out.
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Only time will tell if it's significant but my dew point is falling around 4 hours ahead of my hourly forecast from the NWS. Just hit 32 and NWS didn't have it that low until 2am.
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45/32 Tiger GA. Dew point has fallen off a cliff in the last 30 minutes after winds flipped from SE to E.
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At the surface. But it could also be too cold above. Warm noses are almost never forecasted well. IMO we won't know how strong it is or where it sets up until it does. We've basically exhausted what the models have to offer us, time to start now-casting.
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Temps are fully dependent on how much lower level cold/dry air can get pumped in before go time. HRRR struggles badly with wet bulbing as well as oddly warming the surface in the heart of events with precip falling through an isothermal column. Without a stout warm surface wind that just simply isn't going to happen.
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NAM is often too warm at the surface. Not saying it is this time, but it was atrocious for lower level temps in GA 2 weeks ago.
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I'm not saying he's wrong necessarily, but anybody whose hyping magical blizzards from months out gets an automatic unfollow from me. And that was a much easier storm to forecast because the cold air was not a concern at any layer in the atmosphere.
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Is this the guy that's been predicting a March blizzard for months now? I wouldn't put much stock in what this guy has to say.
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Tiger, GA 47/42 Anxiously awaiting some drier air to start filtering in.
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That's the hope. Mid level warm noses scare me though because they are rarely modeled very well. I've had plenty a disappointing heavy sleet storms before. HRRR and WRF giving me hope though pushing that rain snow line south pretty fast tomorrow morning.
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Yep. My concern with this system is whether or not the mid/upper levels cool in time and stay that way. Surface temps in the mid/upper 30s is fine for wet snow but the upper levels have to cooperate.
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Yep, I chose to just ignore the surface and 925 temps cause physics says that if it's that cold at 850 with heavy precip it isn't suddenly warming in the layers below it. It did the same with the previous storm. Had the surface way too warm by as much 5-10 degrees. Showed even the Mtns changing to rain, when as we know the exact opposite happened with snow making it as far south as Atlanta and Athens.
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SREF continues to make this look more and more like a primarily NC and Virginia event... GFS and NAM look the best on the southern fringes but have been trending poorly for a while now. 2 days ago when I was begging for a northward trend I should've known this would happen lol.
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Lol, just your average run to run change inside 48 hours.
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Lol, just flipped through the rest of the GFS and it's got a big time fantasy land storm in March.
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Looks fairly certain at this point that MBY is going to be right around the dividing line which can make for a fun now-casting event or a downright torturous one. My guess at this point is mostly rain/sleet/white rain then finally a sloppy inch or two in the grass towards the end.
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Big difference between the temp issues on the NAM/GFS and the CMC/UKMET. NAM and GFS issue is mid level warm nose causing issues, most places with good precip are getting down into the 32-35 range which is fine for wet snow as long as it's cold above. CMC and UKMET really don't have a warm nose, they are just downright warm at the surface and they stay that way for the whole storm in a lot of places.
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Looking at the soundings on the Canadian and literally everything looks good except the surface. It's as if somehow it's already saturated before the precip rolls in, therefore no evaporative cooling. It's a solid snow sounding in the mid/upper levels for most of the storm in N GA, except where the GFS is sitting between 32-35 the CMC is stuck on 40.
