SnowDawg

The mean may still look nice on the GEFS, but make no mistake it is quickly trending in the wrong direction too. Big time increase in members cutting west of the Apps.

Realistically is there anything we can look for to start reversing this NW trend? Cause right now its in absolute overdrive, that's gotta be like 7 or 8 straight runs. Went from a borderline Miller A setup to cutting west of the Apps in the blink of an eye.

OP GFS remains well west of the ensemble, but that being said the ensemble just keeps following it every step of the way, just lagging behind by a few runs. Eric Webb on twitter basically saying cling to the GEFS at your own peril, and the OP likely has a better handle, isn't making me feel any better about where things are heading.

50/50 is 14 mbar deeper at hr 84 compared to 18z. That's the shortwave that got aircraft data, wonder if that's impacting it?

Ugh, not loving these trends today. Thought just maybe this could be a storm that I wasn't sitting right on the gradient, which is where things are heading if this keeps up.

CMC finally came back to life and finished its run.

You guys are definitely spot on about the tug north, and it seems to be coming about because of the slower timing. Yesterday I was seeing onset IMBY around 6-8pm Saturday now it's showing more 1-7am Sunday.

Right? I genuinely don't know how to react. Feel like I'm sitting in the bullseye but nervously waiting for the other shoe to drop.

I think @burgertimementioned Christmas 2010 last night and just looking through the GSP report, my untrained eyes definitely see some similarities to the GFS solution. Low track and pressure drop nearly identical, just slightly further north as currently modeled. GFS CAD is better than 2010 plus peak climo so it's colder, at least for me in N GA. https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/Event_Review_Christmas_2010_Snow.pdf

Big jump on the GEFS for the weekend. 06z vs the new 12z both out to 7AM on the 18th.

Guess the GFS heard your call for a monster fantasy storm. Phase a little late for us back west but that's too small a detail to get caught up in at this range.

36 and rain/mix was as good as it got here in my corner of North GA this morning, despite the HRRR's insistence on more right down to the end.

LP has formed. Feels like maybe a bit ahead of time.

It is way off on dew points though just like it was with the snow event 2 weeks ago. For me it showed a 3 pm dew point of 32, actual is 23.

This for sure! Remember this is what all the models, I mean every single one, missed on for our snow event. They all underestimated the dry air at the surface by a significant margin leading to a stronger in-situ wedge and a busted forecast for most of them.

Oh what I wouldn't do for a southern slider in that setup...

Georgia and South Carolina deciding to just be Florida North from now on I guess lol

Is it not strange that this low takes off almost due N/NE into this huge HP? Also the 50/50 was a lot weaker compared to 00z run leading to less confluence.

Of course it is, it's a smoothed mean at nearly 180 hours out. Key is the CAD signal is there. This is the ptype panel....

HRRR for the first time in the last two winters for me proved it wasn't absolutely useless for winter events. Even more surprising for me was the long lead times it did so at, with little to no wavering on its idea. It kicked the NAMs butt yesterday after what had been, at least for my back yard at least, 2 years of dominance from the NAM over the HRRR. Seems to me it clearly had a better handle on the dry air at the surface strengthening the wedge to hold off the warm nose longer and on the intense band with the 700mbar frontogenesis, which I noted on Friday night the NAM was consistently weakening for some unknown reason.

Warm nose and mixing line showing up well on cc. Hopefully it takes its time.

Yeah it is dumping here now. Accumulating quickly and temp is crashing. Now it's just a matter of how long it takes the warm nose to get here.

Yeah I've been watching it snow heavily on the mountains just to my N/NW for a while now but just can't stay under the good rates long enough here to keep it reaching the ground I guess. Shouldn't be long though, steadily saturating now.