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SnowDawg

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Everything posted by SnowDawg

  1. SnowDawg
    NWS Atlanta clearly in complete disagreement with GSP with regards to NE GA. This is from their afternoon weather briefing.
  2. SnowDawg
    I can't make any sense of this. They basically have me getting nothing from the front end ahead of the warm nose. There is literally no model support for this...
  3. SnowDawg
    Well hopefully literally all the modeling is more accurate than GSP's new forecast... From 12-18 when the watch first came out down to 3-4....
  4. SnowDawg
    Really only the 0z NAM last night was a complete disaster, and the 6z immediately came back more in line with previous runs at least when it came to P-type durations/snow totals/etc. In the end though GSP making the safe call, no one's gonna be upset if the snow busts slightly over, and their forecast is still well within warning criteria.
  5. SnowDawg
    Should be more sleet than freezing rain based on soundings. If it keeps trending that way then maybe worry, but for now it should still be more snow/sleet and glazing of ice.
  6. SnowDawg
    Man that NAM run was nerve wracking... It still stayed all snow through 7-8AM but man was it borderline at 850 almost all night. Too darn close to a sleet storm for my comfort on that one.
  7. SnowDawg
    Our ULL has officially closed off. Guess we can let the nowcasting begin and track how this thing digs.
  8. SnowDawg
    Euro has been locked in consistent today.
  9. SnowDawg
    Yeah, if we underperform on QPF around here it's almost always from getting screwed by a massive dry slot followed by paltry wrap around, not from less in the front end. If anything, more times than not we overperform with the front end thump from the orographic lift the models don't see well.
  10. SnowDawg
    Yep and the wraparound from the ULL will be approaching from a slightly better angle than with those storms, and should have a good shot of ending with a nice burst of powder I'd think.
  11. SnowDawg
    Man I really hope that comma head band comes through and saves the day with a few quick inches for those outside the mountains in North GA. A lot of those areas in a real long snow drought.
  12. SnowDawg
    I think the 12km's radar presentation matches this one well, and if you run it forward you see the main dry slot setup well east of the mountains.
  13. SnowDawg
    Man those winds on the Euro are no joke. Very excited to maybe get some big drifts cause it's been a very very long time since we've had anything other than calm snowstorms here. Now the 100+ foot oak trees around my house I'm less excited about...
  14. SnowDawg
    Yeah definitely been some weak ones over the last few years. I wonder if the dynamics in this setup will help with that by pumping up that east wind we need to filter in the dry air?
  15. SnowDawg
    This may just be the first time I've seen an ensemble mean over a foot here in Clayton. December 2018 we were sitting right on the gradient ended up with like 6-8. 15 or so inches in 88 is the record here, if somehow we could stay all snow might just get a shot at it.
  16. SnowDawg
    Soundings from the Euro were absolutely fantastic here in NE GA. Definitely all snow from 10 PM through 10 AM, few hours of sleet, then back to heavy snow, temps in 20's all day.
  17. SnowDawg
    Sheesh... Massive may be an understatement. I'm sitting at around 11 inches already at 7AM Sunday and looking at this radar downstream at 29 degrees.
  18. SnowDawg
    Really pulling for you guys down there and over towards Athens as well. I know I complain sometimes when a storm busts up here in the mountains cause it's been a rough couple years as far as big storms go, but I don't even know what I'd do in a complete snow drought like Atlanta is in. I think I saw the other day that at the airport they are closing in on their longest snowless streak on record.
  19. SnowDawg
    Yep, nervously hoping against the windshield wiper effect with our trends this afternoon.
  20. SnowDawg
    Given how the discussion was worded I'm kind of shocked to find about 10 inches of snow in my hourly forecast grid.
  21. SnowDawg
    NAM significantly colder and drier both at the surface and mid levels at hr 84 vs the GFS just a few hours before precip onset.
  22. SnowDawg
    Global models starting to advertise strong wind gusts 30/40+ as well. With the paste bomb start plus some potential ice, better get those generators ready.
  23. SnowDawg
    Amazing setup on the Euro. Wow.... That quick transition on the low before it even got up into Tennessee was perfect. Super long duration event. I'm used to 8-12 hour storms and verbatim that has precip for over 24 hours. As always with Miller B though, I'm wary of a dry slot.
  24. SnowDawg
    CMC surface output more closely resembling what GFS soundings suggested it should've shown I think.
  25. SnowDawg
    Heck even down my way it looked mostly snow on the soundings. Like you 99 was definitely a sleet sounding, and for me 96 was iffy but i'd lean snow.
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