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SnowDawg

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Everything posted by SnowDawg

  1. SnowDawg
    The last frame here wasn't just a big jump south but west as well, and the trough is closer to a neutral tilt much earlier. Is it crazy to hold on to hope here in N GA and Upstate area that this trend can keep up enough to get us in the game either with a quick gulf draw or quicker cyclogenesis in the Atlantic throwing some back?
  2. SnowDawg
    At this point, I think for those of us on the west side of this sub-forum this pattern we are currently in breaking down isn't the worst thing in the world. The blocking from early on is gone and now the northern stream is just crushing every chance we get for some development in the gulf. Keep the cold air in Canada, get some variability, and try to time something up. Yeah gambling on timing is always tough, but lets be honest the vast majority of our storms are just that.
  3. SnowDawg
    Yep, very similar to 18z GFS. Southern shortwave lagging way behind will be flat and squash the developing activity in the gulf. Extrapolated forward either a weak partial phase late off the coast or a complete miss like the GFS.
  4. SnowDawg
  5. SnowDawg
    I wouldn't even call what the 18z GFS did a stop of the trend it was on. If anything it was a continuation of it digging the wave more and more SW. Too much of a good thing causing the phase to miss almost entirely.
  6. SnowDawg
    I've always thought a college system from further back would suit the NFL well. Drives start at midfield or the opposite 40, forcing teams to have to get a first down or two to even attempt a field goal, and it's far enough back the whole playbook is open including deep. Other than that rules are the same as college, trade possessions until there is a winner.
  7. SnowDawg
    Beautiful trends on the GEFS today with the placement of the mean trough. Exactly the ensemble support I was hoping to see start building before I let myself get remotely interested in this chance. Still not overly optimistic this far west, but we'll see. Would hate to be left out on back to back snows.
  8. SnowDawg
    I don't mind seeing that on the OP necessarily, but we need the ensembles to start trending away from that late phase offshore scenario soon. Otherwise runs like the previous two are just outliers among the suite.
  9. SnowDawg
    Almost all ensemble members support a storm. But the consensus for now is a late bloomer, with the trough off the Atlantic coast. Basically the 18z GFS is roughly the ensemble mean at the moment. Hopefully we can get some positive trends over the weekend.
  10. SnowDawg
    Hopefully some ensemble support will actually start to build for that timeframe cause until then these are just meaningless fantasy runs for me.
  11. SnowDawg
    Seeing the GFS pretty consistently show that this week, I did think back to this event. One of my favorite of the past few years for sure.
  12. SnowDawg
    That's what I was wondering. If it's possible that they are making adjustments based only on the northern stream wave digging further and may still be underestimating the NW extent of the precip shield? HRRR still struggling to get the precip field right in Texas and Louisiana in real time.
  13. SnowDawg
    This is Atlanta's 2014 snowmagedon happening for the Carolinas and maybe far East GA this time. All the way inside 12-24 hours to go little to no snow was expected from Atlanta northward. By the middle of the next day the entire forecast area was under winter storm warnings. Coincidentally that storm has been the top cips analog most of the week.
  14. SnowDawg
    Honestly, overrunning setups are a mystery to me when it comes to precip generation but do we even need a NW trend or just for things to amp up a little quicker to have precip thrown back west downstream of us? I feel like given the orientation of the stalled front we could get ours even without screwing those to the east over, sort of like a 2017 with a flatter ENE trajectory instead of NNE. I wish I knew more about overrunning though because I don't know what to look for to see if this is even possible.
  15. SnowDawg
    Hi-Res models consistently giving North GA a decent snow, globals and ensembles saying mostly bone dry. Not sure what to think. NWS Atlanta and GSP are in a really tough spot right now.
  16. SnowDawg
    No kidding. Just 4 pages in, 84hr NAM 12km throwing the first warning shots that lot more QPF was coming west about 3-4 days out. Sounds pretty familiar. Obviously 2017 is a ridiculous benchmark, but it's clear comparing where we were 3-4 days out then to now, that absolutely no one in the Western Carolinas and N GA should be giving up on this one.
  17. SnowDawg
    Probably closing in on 2 inches from the wraparound alone right now, has been intermittently very heavy. I think storm total is some where in the 7-8 inch range but we lost quite a bit this morning to melting while it rained for several hours.
  18. SnowDawg
    28 degrees in Clayton, GA. Hasn't really been in radar much but we've picked up about an inch of upslope flow snow over the last few hours. Looks like some of the heavier bands from the ULL may rotate through in a couple hours and maybe pick up another inch or 2. Storm total is probably around 5-6 right now but we lost a lot of it to rain this morning.
  19. SnowDawg
    Finally starting to snow again here in Clayton. Still almost 35 degrees though.
  20. SnowDawg
    35 and rain all morning here in Clayton, GA. All of last night's snow now a sloppy muddy mess.
  21. SnowDawg
    Ended up with about 3.5-4 inches in Clayton, GA. Annoyingly it is now 33 with rain and it's melting... Hoping to get at least a couple more from the backside later today.
  22. SnowDawg
    Jealous of how long y'all will get that. Dry slot coming in hot from the west over here.
  23. SnowDawg
    Light to occasionally moderate snow south of Clayton, GA. A nice coating starting in the yard. 32.8/32.1
  24. SnowDawg
    Light snow starting just south of Clayton, GA. 36/29 East wind 13.
  25. SnowDawg
    Gosh, even the 3km gives me 10 inches Kuchera. I know some of that is sleet but I can't find an ounce of model support for those cuts in SW NC/Northern Upstate/far NE GA. The 18z 3k went back towards a snowier solution at that.
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