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SnowDawg

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Everything posted by SnowDawg

  1. SnowDawg
    Low in the lakes is a killer there. Really thought it was about to go boom for the mtns and interior on that one with the highs bridged over the top.
  2. SnowDawg
    I would also point out that by only going out 240 the Euro is ending right where the ensembles have the snowiest period beginning. Similar to how that 18z GFS yesterday was bone dry through the same time period but then brought back to back events on the 22nd and 24th. I don't care what the pattern is we aren't going to bat 1.000 down here so just keep the cold and the energy flying around and we're bound to get at least something out of this.
  3. SnowDawg
    18z GFS is dreaming of a dark Christmas apparently lol
  4. SnowDawg
    It really was. Only worry with it is cold and dry as it is getting more and more into that true arctic outbreak type cold. But as we all know that really isn't a worry worth having at this range.
  5. SnowDawg
    There is so much energy flying around between next weekend and Christmas! Right now it's showing up as a lot of weak sheared out southern slider type storms but if the models are underestimating the block pushing the northern stream energy south and slowing it down, just like they were doing for next week's system, a big phased storm is definitely on the table in that timeframe.
  6. SnowDawg
    Been thinking the same thing today. Looks like at the least the first legitimate window to keep an eye on.
  7. SnowDawg
    Oof...amazing that we could go from that look at 12z to raging east coast ridge as far as the eye can see so quickly. Clearly a very volatile pattern, and trusting the models past a few days out is probably foolish move for now.
  8. SnowDawg
    Certainly not the run you wanted to see after how perfect the 12z runs were, completely obliterates the blocking. It's had a few runs like this over the past week and then reverted back to the bridge block over the top, so hopefully that'll be the case again.
  9. SnowDawg
    Yeah last few frames of the Euro looks absolutely beautiful at H5. Huge EPO ridge tucked right in against the west coast, west based Greenland block going nuts, and plenty of negative anomalies in the 50/50 region. All the while a piece of energy in the southern jet running through the 4 corners region towards the gulf, and northern stream energy diving out of Canada.
  10. SnowDawg
    7.93" looks to be the final total. Initial forecast of 3-4. I wanna see a bust like this on a snowstorm one of these days lol
  11. SnowDawg
    6.61 inches for that 24 hour period, 6.8 storm total....so far. Ain't a creek or river still in its banks at this point, and looks like it could be after sunrise before it finally stops.
  12. SnowDawg
    Just passed 4 inches of rain so far out of this system. Forecast was 3-4 so that's definitely gonna bust. Looking at the latest HRRR for tonight at least 6 inches storm total looks like a safe bet.
  13. SnowDawg
    NAO may be just what we need to slow things down and get some better phases.
  14. SnowDawg
    The NW trend used to be such a friend to our area, now it seems to have completely abandoned us this year. Unless you can score big NW flow, this pattern has been junk since the January event. This will be the 3rd straight weekend with a system missing wide right...
  15. SnowDawg
    Trend is clear on all guidance so far today, flatter and more suppressed. Rare or not, the suppression train continues. Outside of the initial storm in January, this pattern has been a constant tease for those on the west side of the forum, only for the models to pull the rug inside 5 days and end up with nothing but virga.
  16. SnowDawg
    Looks pretty close to the 12z run to me at the same timeframe. Maybe some baby steps better here or there, but feels like splitting hairs at this leadtime. Definitely very different from the GFS.
  17. SnowDawg
    Good for some maybe, but those of us on the far western side of the forum have either been completely missed to the southeast or barely fringed by the last two systems.
  18. SnowDawg
    Changes on the ensembles looking not so good for western areas... EPS was already pretty suppressed and dry at 00z last night and its even worse today. And despite the super amped OP run, the GEFS is moving that direction too. We'll see where things end up, but there's no questioning this has been the name of the game in this pattern after we scored that first storm in January.
  19. SnowDawg
    Key to remember that last nights run was an outlier from the EPS. This run just aligns more closely to what the Euro suite has been saying the whole time, supporting mostly a flat/suppressed system. We'll see over the coming days if more members start to move towards the amped GFS or vice versa.
  20. SnowDawg
    Definitely pulling for a solution more like the Euro, and just hope to get lucky on QPF. It advances the cold front much further than the GFS behind our end of the week rain maker. With some antecedent cold would definitely be more snow and sleet and not the ZR mess from the GFS.
  21. SnowDawg
    Nice band just developed all the way down my way. A good qtr inch down and still snowing lightly. Rarely ever see anything other than flurries out of NW flow so I'm pleasantly surprised with this.
  22. SnowDawg
    I think our old nemesis the southeast ridge can help us out in this situation by fighting against suppression, not letting the Arctic boundary drop too far south of us, and enhancing the thermal gradient some.
  23. SnowDawg
    GEFS mean looked liked it both slowed down the southern energy and sped up the northern portion. But the changes are ultimately small, and even on the ensembles one run can't be considered a trend, especially with such a razor thin margin on sensible impacts.
  24. SnowDawg
    Looks more like the 12z run than 18z. Southern energy is lagging some again so the phase is later.
  25. SnowDawg
    Ugh, this storm is going to be absolute torture for North GA. Absolute perfect setup missing just wide right. And I thought last weekend was frustrating...
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