SnowDawg

From what I can tell, basically every county in North GA from the Atlanta area up got anywhere from mood flakes to an inch, except for mine. I try to keep my emotions out of this most the time, but this one stings lol.

Very jealous of Northern Alabama today. Still holding out hope for later but very skeptical of being able to overcome 30+ point dewpoint depressions.

Saw a bit of a flizzard this morning around 4 AM but has otherwise been dry. Down to 9 degrees. Based on forecast and modeling, I'm expecting it not to drop much further and just hover around 10 the rest of the day, before making a run at below zero tonight.

Man if that warmth aloft is overdone even in the slightest, this could turn into a really nice snow event all things considered. NAM now showing around a qtr inch or more QPF area wide for Tuesday.

12z NAM showing over a tenth of an inch QPF wintry mix this run over NE GA. If the 850's could just be colder it'd probably be all snow.

Through 126 looks like the West/Amped trend has stopped for now. Vort very slightly east and weaker. TPV lobe in SE Canada is stronger and may help with confluence, but it's alignment and placement is different from previous runs. We'll see where this goes. Still very different from Euro solution.

Only on operationals. Ensembles still have it on the table. No way to have any feeling for the trailing storm until we can get a handle on the first one.

Snow mean back up on the GEFS. Interested to look at the individual members. Through 7 am Christmas Eve.

It largely held serve with the big picture but the westward/amped trend needs to stop. Plenty of time for it to windshield wiper back. Still miles better than the Canadian and Euro look.

One big difference that stands out between GFS and CMC is in how it handles that PV lobe as it ejects from western Canada. GFS splits into two systems, the first of which aids in confluence over the NE forcing the second wave to dig further SW. The Canadaian keeps the lobe intact which lends itself to the big amped lakes system.

I could be wrong but this feels like the first Miller A/B hybrid that we've dealt with in a while. With the hybrid we're basically trying to perfectly time a clipper phasing with a suppressed southern stream wave. 06z GFS really shows where the speed of both systems matters for the final outcome. The southern wave gets too far ahead so the phase is too late. Also just as the Euro showed a couple days ago, the clipper portion alone is enough to bring light to moderate snow to the western side of the forum if it digs enough.

GEFS individuals still showing a very wide range of outcomes from rain, to dry, from light snow, to big snow. I think it's safe to say that the Mid-Atlantic to the NE is probably more favored and the SE maybe moreso with the trailing wave, but it's clear if the cards fall our way we're in the game for both.

Overall QPF went up on the mean and snow went slightly down for most. Looking at the individuals there are a few more that get too amped up too quick and we rain. Small potatoes at this range, all in all still a great signal on the GEFS. And still showing potential past this 23rd threat as well.

GEFS looks good to me. Minimal changes, maybe actually small improvements.

Yeah slightly flatter ridge and an earlier phase turning the trough negative quicker.

PNA ridge and it's effect on the angle of the jet will largely decide how far the wave will dig. Need the jet to be aligned more out of the NNW than it is on the Euro. There's certainly more pieces involved like the speed of the southern piece of energy, and the confluence/blocking over the NE not allowing a weakness for it to slide east, but the PNA ridge certainly feels like the most important ingredient.

Beautiful to see that short wave dig further south and west like I was hoping to see when I posted last night. The ensembles have had a storm signal there from the beginning. And the Euro has been all in on a monster storm as well. So I'm convinced there will be a big storm on the east coast in that time frame, the question for us will be can it dig far enough to get that ULL under us.

That's a pretty substantial jump south on that run with the big northern stream wave next week. Definitely plenty of time to hopefully see that trend towards digging just a bit more. Maybe a longshot but the ensembles have continuously had at least a few members with a storm in this timeframe. Perhaps even more interesting could be the subsequent piece of energy that wraps around that TPV lobe once it gets stuck under the block, the GEFS at 18z indroduced a lot more QPF around the 25th/26th, but only time will tell.

These differences are apparent when looking at the 700mbar winds as well, which is where you want to see some vertical motion and flow off the gulf if you want precip. The 0z Tuesday run shows just that with strong moisture transport off the gulf. So I'd say for starters, we'd either need the NS wave to speed up and clear out allowing heights to rise off the coast just before, or slow down like was shown on the 0z Tuesday run. Slower feels like our best bet given the blocking and confluence.

It really wouldn't take big changes to get back in the game on that one for sure. This was the 0z Tuesday run for the same system. The STJ shortwave is still relatively weak but the slightly higher heights off the Atlantic were enough to let it amplify a bit. If you look at H5 you can see the difference between then and now. The NS wave has sped up and is dropping down in front of our wave and crashing heights in front of it, essentially crushing it.

One of the things that has made winter weather look a lot less likely than it initially did is all the ensembles,and even the OP GFS and Canadian, were showing some overunning events coming out of the string of shortwaves running through the STJ next week. Now all the models largely agree on every one of them being weak, strung out, and suppressed. Unfortunately typical in a La Niña. Maybe one of those will trend back towards us in the short range but who knows.

That pre-Christmas storm is close, definitely like the trends with it on the GFS today. Just need it to dig a little more and get going quicker. I'm interested to see how the individual ensemble members look.

Just a bit of a difference at 240 lol

I think we're still seeing some La Niña influences in that there is just too much energy, too fast, all at once. This makes it difficult for any one system to amplify and makes suppression easier as all the waves are weak and flat. I actually wonder if maybe the models are underestimating the block and 50/50 lows slowing down the flow, especially in the medium to long range?

Very reminiscent of February 2021 right now. The chances we do have (18th/20th) get crushed by the northern stream and can't amplify so it just rains on coast. Then when a phase finally happens its too far west. Ensembles have still been positive, so its far from cliff diving time, but it's fair to say the trends in the OP's are not good.