SnowDawg

At the surface sure. But at H5 it has trended much closer towards the GFS it's just too positive tilt and doesn't get fully cutoff.

Lol, our luck somehow the forecasted rapid onset El Niño is going to turn into La Niña coming back for round four by the time we get past summer.

Has ultimately been the trend on most guidance the last day or so. Either weak missed phase or phase too late with the low popping 2-400 miles too far east. Has been a longshot for anything more than nuisance ice from the beginning though realistically. Shame considering the usual culprits from this winter (SE Ridge/Cutting track) aren't to blame for this likely miss.

Couldn't have said it better. I enjoy tracking the weather, so I'm gonna track every single threat big or small until it no longer becomes a threat or we get lucky and score one. Burying ones head in the sand for fear of being disappointed seems like much more of a weenie move to me.

Have been hoping to see things trend towards the 0z gfs solution from the 29th. The LP formed much quicker over southern GA instead of out over the Atlantic. This aided the wedge and the heavier precip helped lock in some top down cooling as well. Was all snow and sleet from the N GA mtns up the chain, and sleet and ZR south and east of there in the CAD region. A couple ensemble members have held onto this idea every run, but for now remains a longshot.

It'd be a real shame to finally get a real workable solution for a big portion of this forum only for the trough to end up too far east so the storm gets going too late.

GFS started hinting at the same storm at 0z last night. It's still there now just a bit suppressed/late blooming. I generally like the look cause I feel CAD is our only hope in this pattern.

Would be nice to see some ensemble support for that Miller A on the GFS starting around 180 hours out. Verbatim that's a wet snow paste bomb all the way up the mountain chain. Soundings even for here showed all snow between 31-33 degrees throughout. CMC has the same exact storm just warmer, showing ice to rain, to backside snow.

The wave of interest on the Euro is actually held back a day longer and then super suppressed down in Florida. Not that I think it matters though, if it were to come north it'd just bring its warmth with it. As others have noted the in between scenario needed just doesn't seem likely with no mechanism to hold the cold HP in place. Would take absolute perfect timing/placement between the high and low moving in sync.

I understand the sentiment but there's been plenty of crap winters with no real established cold that we've won the timing lottery in. Let's be honest, a very large portion of our winter events over time have probably come from transient cold. I'm certainly not confident in seeing winter precip, but I'm definitely not gonna thrown in the towel til the climatolagy window for my area closes.

When will we ever see another Miller A storm?!? High is weaker and a little quicker but the Miller B with a stronger parent low in East Tennessee is a real killer. Clearly a storm signal, but we're gonna need to thread the needle. Timing/strength of multiple features is critical.

Just a tiny bit quicker HP on the Euro to establish that CAD better ahead of time would be perfect but obviously no reason to nitpick at this range.

As far as I know 4 years is unprecedented in modern times. I know the forecast right now is for a rapid flip to neutral by late spring and El niño by the end of the summer/early fall. Just feels tough to have much faith in predictions the way things have been going.

Well, following that GFS run.... Y'all think we finally actually kick this La Niña to the curb next winter? Or are we stuck in this hellscape of a pattern forever lol

At this range I'll take my chances on this look with a 50/50 low and a 1040 high and just assume the GFS is wrong about the gulf low just waiting around until it can cut west. At this point it's nice just to have something at least minimally interesting to follow.

I'd be interested to see how far the storm at the end could push the boundary. For whatever it's worth its this 3rd through the 7th or so period that the ensembles are at least trying to signal some overunning fun. I know it's day 10 plus so what's the use, but I guess we've got to talk about something lol.

Longtime lurker here, spend most my time on the SE forum, but here in North GA I'm kinda stuck in between this one and a very carolina centric one over there. Definitely brings 2015 to mind for me. Had all but given up on winter by the start of February and then in the span of about ten days had three winter storms. First was a heavy ice and sleet event, then a light snow and ice event, and finished with a big Miller A all snow event. No doubt if you can get the setup just right, our hits can come in bunches, even within an otherwise mostly forgetful winter.

Genuinely asking, how many winters has our area ever gone wire to wire with no kind of synoptic event, even if just a minor marginal temps slop fest? It maybe selfish, but living where I do, fropa and flow snow is never going to get me excited. My town has never had a winter without measurable snowfall on record, and I am cautiously optimistic that this streak will live on.

Obviously the upcoming pattern in the medium range isn't some honking SE snow pattern but I generally like the look at least for our area. Definitely gonna be some cutters but I think the TN valley/upper SE/southern apps are in as good a spot as can be given the background state this winter. Get one of these cutters to track into the 50/50 region to give the SE ridge a shove and get the Arctic boundary just far enough south to put us on the cold side of a trailing overrunning event.

Been a nice heavy flizzard the last few hours. Still a bit above freezing so only sticking to elevated surfaces. Other parts of the county though already with a nice dusting heading towards a half inch.

Spitting some snow every now and then here. Good sign that maybe we can get a good shower or two tonight if things really get cranking. Never can tell down this way, but sometimes if the flow is really strong we can squeeze out a good dusting.

Enjoy it fellas! I'm hoping to see some flurries/showers break containment and get down my way this evening/tonight when the forcing is at its best.

Some pics from earlier. Some of the biggest pieces were between qtr and half dollar size, but it was mostly pea to marble. Best dusting I've had all year lol

One of the stronger hail storms we've had in years here south of Clayton. Just absolutely dumped pea mixed with some qtr size for a solid 5+ minutes.

That sucks. I figured there'd be some here or there that missed out as well but there was impressively good coverage a cross North GA as a whole. I know I've seen accumulation reports from Southern Gwinnett and other parts of the metro, the Athens area, the southern mtns in Dawson and Forsyth, lots of West GA, and all the northern mtn counties but mine. Hopefully the back half of winter has hope for something bigger.