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SnowDawg

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Everything posted by SnowDawg

  1. SnowDawg
    If we can get the PNA to really pump I think we'll be in business. We need something to cut off that endless stream of lows being sent into the PNW and Canada. Then maybe we can get some high pressures to build in overtop of our active stj.
  2. SnowDawg
    Love seeing that thing dig so far south on the NAM. Would definitely put North GA in the game for at least a nice flizzard. Too bad it's the NAM at range lol
  3. SnowDawg
    I hope it stays that way, but I'm still wary of our typical NW trend inside the last 24-48 hours.
  4. SnowDawg
    Amen, if I ain't getting a full blown blizzard out of this then I have no interest in going through those kinds of winds. Besides, nothing in the long term suggests we're gonna be hurting for rainfall so I'm all for sitting this one out.
  5. SnowDawg
    Wonder if it's a situation where things go east today, and then we see the usual NW trend inside 48 hours?
  6. SnowDawg
    6z GFS showing switch over to heavy wet snow as the ULL swings through. Even down here in North GA I believe that is 100% a snow sounding even though it shows rain. Don't envy GSP on this forecast, somewhere in the mountains could get hammered all the way down to the valleys.
  7. SnowDawg
    This is gonna be a mess if that GFS run is right. Haven't seen a run with widespread winds like this since Irma.
  8. SnowDawg
    Man, I'd much rather see this be suppressed and head out to sea. GFS with 50-70+ mph gusts region wide will be destructive. Really don't wanna be in the dark for days on end.
  9. SnowDawg
    Writing is on the wall at this point that this winter is gonna come down to mid-January through February going as expected for a strong Niño. Even with a pattern change, it's gonna take a while to flush all this warm air off the continent and then hopefully build a snowpack in our source regions. The euro weeklies still look good, but they've punted any significant changes to around the 2nd week of January at this point.
  10. SnowDawg
    I'm just really nervous about the strength and resiliency of that -EPO and Pacific Jet. Once locked in they can be hard to ever really get rid of. May end up having to bank on threading the needle during brief periods where it relaxes/retracts, as opposed to getting any real extended cold to work with.
  11. SnowDawg
    It seriously feels like we've been allergic to the cold phases of MJO during the winter months. Could end up blowing January too. I know February is the best month by far in strong Niños but it's hard to be confident in that with how that month has treated us lately. Really need that SSW like GaWx was talking about above.
  12. SnowDawg
    Man seeing that track on next weekends storm system with absolutely no cold air whatsoever to work with is downright depressing. Maybe it's a track we can repeat throughout the winter, but it just seems those big bowling ball Miller A's are so rare these days that it sucks to waste one.
  13. SnowDawg
    3.37 here with a little more to come and hopefully a few minutes of token flakes to top it off.
  14. SnowDawg
    That +EPO is going absolutely bonkers and looks worryingly stable even well into January on the weeklies. Makes it way harder to get any cold air into North America. We're gonna need the PNA to do some heavy lifting. Hopefully we can get lucky towards peak Niño climo in February and actually get the Atlantic and Pacific to work together for what feels like the first time in eternity.
  15. SnowDawg
    Too far out to mean anything yet but the last third of the 6z GFS looks great. That blocking is absolutely insane leading up to the holidays.
  16. SnowDawg
    3 day stretch of morning lows 25, 20, and 22 for the first 3 days of November. Pretty impressive. Hopefully the main winter months are kinder to us this year than last.
  17. SnowDawg
    Dang... Need that El Niño precip pattern to get fired up sometime soon.
  18. SnowDawg
    20 on the dot down here in Georgia. Quite the impressive airmass this is.
  19. SnowDawg
  20. SnowDawg
    Anybody in here see the 12z Euro control? One of the best modeled fantasy storms I've seen in a while. An absolute legend that will never happen lol
  21. SnowDawg
    That surface low is still bouncing around a lot on guidance. We are definitely still in the window where big NW trends are on the table and if so then the focus of the dynamics probably shifts more into TN, KY, and OH. Just spitballing but maybe the reason for the SPC not really upping the ante for any specific region on Friday.
  22. SnowDawg
    This is definitely the worst winter I've seen for my backyard. Got a near 30 year record and have never seen a winter without measurable snowfall, and I imagine that streak goes back much much further. Definitely a few that cut it close but in the end there'd always be at least a dusting before all was said and done. Right now the only flakes I've seen were a few stray flurries the day after Christmas. I'm not giving up until climo says to, but I'm not optimistic at this point.
  23. SnowDawg
    Oh yeah I figured that, but hey its at least something interesting to look at for a minute.
  24. SnowDawg
    Sleeting here with a bit of rain.
  25. SnowDawg
    Idk if it'll matter but the HRRR is too warm on both temp and dewpoint and NAM is way high on dewpoint at least for my location. NAM has it around 51/28 and reality is 51/9.6. Not sure it'll matter much but we'll see I guess.
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