SnowDawg

Gosh, now Tennessee is about to pull a rabbit out of the hat again. I swear I've never seen that region get as much snow as they've got the last couple years. Just unreal, the rich get richer.

Well at least this winter is proof that we can still get Miller A's. This is like the 4th one. Of course they've all been warm rain storms...but beggars can't be choosers I guess lol

I've said it all winter, this is the most La Niña looking El Niño I've ever seen. It's just an endless onslaught of low pressures rolling through southern Canada into the NE, meaning we can never build any decent HP to work with. Overactive northern stream, classic hallmark of a La Niña. It's like after the 3 year Niña some features are lagging to adjust. It took 48 hours to go from this... to this...

Knew a run like that would happen eventually. There's been plenty of members like that in the ensemble the whole time. We've been slow and steady losing the PNA on modeling for a while now, that's critical for our cold air delivery. Is what it is unfortunately. This multi year trend of the pacific always screwing us is just unrelenting. I just don't see a way out of it, and next year's La Niña will only serve to keep that pattern rolling. Math says climo favored areas luck into something eventually, and who knows maybe this is still the one, but extended winter weather appears a thing of the past until something can break this pacific regime we've found ourselves in.

Verbatim I got blanked there, but I'd take that look and bet on CAD being a bit better.

If that dang pacific trough would back off and quit nudging into the west coast we'd be in business big time and not have so many sticking points in the forecast that could go wrong. Seems a proper PNA ridge continues to just be impossible to come by like it has been for years now. Lack of snow has not been surprising given that fact. To me it's the most important factor because it encourages the northern stream to dig hard.

Just need that to amplify sooner and that's a proper region wide slider. You can see how when it finally strengthens off the coast it pulls cold air into the system. Timing moved a bit towards the GFS, still think a slower southern wave is better for us but I'm sure it's gonna bounce around a bit for now.

It is essentiallly two separate systems, one diving in from the northern stream and one sliding through the gulf. To fill the gap you need the two to phase. If it does it'll go boom, but miss the phase and the northern stream energy simply squashes our gulf wave, thus suppression.

Yep, that's why selfishly I would prefer the Euro solution to avoid the phase problem alltogther. But I know that does little good for anyone outside of CAD areas. Normally I'd feel bad for the lowland crew that regularly go years without snow and pull for a big boardwide monster storm, but after the longest snow drought in my life I'll admit I don't care what happens as long as I see snow lol

That northern vort being stretched and strung out over the top will never work. A piece of it needs to dig and phase, like the GFS was showing yesterday or it needs to do what the Euro did last night and let the northern piece swing through ahead of our wave. This lowers heights in front of the storm and let's our CAD high anchor in, and gives the stj wave more room to amplify some. The GFS and Euro are way apart on the timing of the southern wave with the GFS being over 24 hours faster. They may even be keying in on different pieces of energy. Long ways to go...

If I had to pick a preferred solution it'd definitely be the Euro. It removes the phase from the equation, let's that northern stream energy clear the playing field for a perfectly timed CAD high. A much simpler solution with less bust potential. Too bad there's still so long to go lol

GFS is proof this doesn't work without the phase. If we can't just get rid of that northern piece alltogther, then we have to get at least a partial phase. Otherwise it hanging out overtop leads to that disjointed look, with one low in the gulf and another in the lakes/Ohio valley wrecking our thermals. As we already knew from the GEFS this was in the range of possible outcomes. Key will be seeing which scenario the ensembles start to converge around over the next few days.

That northern stream piece diving down is what's wrapping the cold air in to the storm. Phased a little later this run, thus less coverage on the snow. Ideally it'd happen even a little quicker than the 12z run.

There is a lot of support for a storm system in that time period it's just right now there's a mixed bag between wintry members, missed phases, and suppression. With the latter being the most favored at the moment. Given the likely need for at least partial phasing for this to work, unlikely to see stable solutions at this long of a lead time.

If that phase could happen just a bit quicker/further west it would've been all snow from the beginning, instead of the rain to snow look. All unimportant details at this range though. Now I'd like to see a significant number of ensemble members start to solidify around a single threat.