SnowDawg

Yeah, for one you guys have much better dewpoint depressions to work with than I did. Needed a more mature CAD back this far SW to help force that low level dry air in.

Guess I jinxed myself here. Currently 37.2 and raining....

With any luck that gulf convection is overdone to an extent given the NAMs bias. But still...not really any positives to take from that.

33/26.4 NAM and HRRR initialized 5-10 degrees too warm. Doesn't really matter overall given moisture will likely be the issue here, but at least maybe none will be wasted on rain.

Shame that this winters theme has been disorganized weak messy storms. Still better than the last three years, but feels like a missed opportunity overall.

GRAF from this afternoon showing that as well. Long lull, followed by another band sweeping through Thursday morning. https://x.com/daniel_bonds/status/1891609242559295680?s=46&t=BVabKZBl0JP2qfoqs7LgyQ

Like seeing the trends toward some better QPF for western half of the forum. Timing looks great with early morning onset, just need the moisture.

Had pretty much assumed North GA was out of the game on this one but the last two euro runs have got my attention. Trying not to get my hopes up without more models on board though.

Light to occasionally moderate snow, 21/14. Secondary roads quickly deteriorating.

Already going past a dusting here, and coming down noticeably harder. Maybe GFS and 06z NAM had this one right.

Light snow for about last half hour here. We'll see how long it keeps up but will definitely see at least a dusting, which is more than was forecast so I'll take it.

Yeah doubt there'd be any problems, especially on main roads with the wind blowing this powder around. A lot of the county has a light dusting already at this point, with even a bit more in a few higher elevation spots sitting just right in the flow.

Surprisingly seeing some light accumulating snow all the way down my way this evening.

I've seen the 2014 comparison for a while now on this one, but my main question would be have the models improved enough over 10 years for that kind of a last second surprise to no longer be possible? I've seen many people say, "this is just like 2014. Just wait, the precip will much further north than expected." Now, I know to many the models are worse than they've ever been, but studies say otherwise and that they continue to become more accurate with every passing year.

I'm just hoping for a decent finger of precip to deliver an inch or two of high ratio powder up this way. I'm fine with missing the bulk of this one for those that rarely have the chance to score one.