AMZ8990

I was looking at that also, those are some big numbers for sure! I used to live just north of Cincinnati in Middletown Ohio. It Looks like they’re expecting 6-10, that drive from Louisville to Cincinnati will be treacherous. That huge decline/hill at the ky/oh border as you come into Cincy from Kentucky is going to be a problem I would think.

Great stuff, Holston. Thanks for sharing

It did, no snow in key west that run. lol. In all seriousness though a couple more ticks north and that’s a huge storm for a lot of the forum. I’m with you on the ice too, I want no part of that!

Most definitely, the strength of this cold shot is creating lots of volatility on the models from run to run. 6z GFS still wanting to take the low right through the midsouth. Big run for the Missouri/Indiana crew though. GFS is still trying to bring a 2nd system in on the 10th though, lots of potential there but HP kept it suppressed to the Deep South as it moved east.

Yes that is correct, from 6z Tuesday until 12z Wednesday the following week is below freezing the entire time. With wind chills included you guys would be looking at some negative temps if that were to verify.

I think I would toss this run of the GFS

Definitely seems like the Euro and GFS are on the same page about that 2nd week of January, both showing similar setups in that January 6th-10th timeframe. Long ways out but impressive to see nonetheless

Thanks Carv, and most definitely. I’m definitely looking forward to January and the potential we have there.

Winter discussion/outlook for January 2025.

I’ve got some Thunderstorms rolling through my area at the moment. Hopefully that’s a sign of good things to come!

Will do

Let the speculation begin!

There is a growing likelihood that we could see a transition into La Niña conditions by December 2024, based on current oceanic and atmospheric data. However, there is still some uncertainty in these predictions. Climate models and meteorologists often have confidence in forecasting La Niña or El Niño conditions up to a few months in advance, but these transitions can be influenced by various factors, including the behavior of the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere. Currently, the consensus among many forecast models suggests that La Niña conditions are more probable for the winter of 2024-2025, especially considering that ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have been showing signs of cooling. However, there is still room for uncertainty, as some models indicate the possibility of ENSO-neutral or even a delayed onset of La Niña. In short, while the chance of La Niña forming is high, the exact timing, strength, and duration remain somewhat uncertain.