ajr
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Everything posted by ajr
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GEFS plumes with a big jump in snow % for RDU
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The FV3 has this system continuing into Monday night, Tuesday AM with snow showers
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Can you post maps?
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Really threading the needle here..
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Slowed down a bit through 84
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18z GFS further south through 72
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Can you post?
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The trend at the 850 level that past few runs has been nice
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That still looks like a foot of snow in Chapel Hill... unreal
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To support this idea, this is exactly what is showing in p-type breakdowns on the GEFS - while still a mixed bag, the 6z has higher prob of snow (30-40% vs 20-30%)
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That's what I remember as well (in particular to Jan 2017 also)
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I’m used to seeing a snow map like that on just ONE ensemble member and us hoping for that... never the mean. Have we ever had a GEFS mean that nice 5 days out?
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Slightly faster but weaker low.. slightly colder at the 850 level through hr 90
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Slightly weaker southern wave, slightly colder through hr 66 on the 6z FV3
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That’s good to hear - in the past few years the NAM has handled temps better than globals (Jan 2017 comes to mind)
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The trend in temps on the Euro is worrying... our cold air is moving out before the storm hits
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Unreal that the EPS mean is 10 inches for parts of central NC more than a few days out from the system
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18z FV3 looks about the same through hr 90
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Might be premature, but just ordered a sled for my son
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Not just you - you can see the cold air from Canada slowly making it further into CONUS at the 850 level
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Sounds like perfect timing
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18z GEFS is going to be more surpressed it looks
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All caveats aside, when is the last time we’ve seen such a consistently modeled powerful winter storm modeled this far out?
