STILL N OF PIKE

Those Berkshire channels probably act like N orh county is so far away they don’t even care to try

Doesn’t appear so . 12k nam says not much tongue action in gives front end thump to areas south of pike . That would seem to contrast things . 12k nam would pick up a big tongue , no? Just need big rates bc the airmass is garbage Sunday

Oh boy haha

Do you have any gut feeling on this system what’s the 12z KDENDY say

Yup I can’t even imagine having to put out a forecast . Given that I believe there is usually more forgiveness overdoing accumulation (as long as at least advisory falls ) then saying 2-4” and people getting 8” with outages lol . Still the smart lean seems conservative for now given uncertainty’s over both parts

I mean ..there was a ferocious WAA Thump in NW NJ S interior NY and Extreme west CT a couple weeks ago but models always seem to struggle with it . That system sure wasn’t crap .

So generally both parts look shaky why is WAA so difficult for models to handle well

It was utter garbage take em down for NE mass further from WAA and weaker CCB trends across guidance maybe something changes

More garbage for NE mass on 12z nam kuch 3-4”

For a clear example of this , folks just need to look at the 6z and 12z runs of the HRRR (both have extended hours ) Go to reflectivity and loop for the day Sunday 6z run was a massive WAA push that wasn’t shredded and was longer lasting and expansive even to the North , The result was CT and RI were buried on Thump and really everyone did well 12z run was a weaker disjointed WAA push and it didn’t really amount to anything other than 1-2” in hills of CT and nada really north of Union In between those extremes would be the 6z euro solid several hour thump but not as expansive and confined to CT and Later into Eve RI

Was much better WAA thump colder for CT into PVD

No posts of The euro clowns at 6z Worst kuchie clown map for NE Mass I’ve seen as most of CT does better gives most of CT 3-5 by 0z and PVD 3-4” by 3z . Crumbs for NE mass . So def colder and for S SNE on WAA thump which is primarily union CT south Orh hills and monads catch up a little

I’d say it’s possible IF the euro warms more at 925 during the 8pm-3am time frame when it has most precip falling . I would not favor that . I think the usual wobbles inside last 30 -36 hours need to be watched closely

That is overly bullish . It’s basically in line with box map. 4-6” Nw side of 495 2-4” 128-495 and 6-8” In monads . It also shifted north into S VT and Monads as it was prior posting best into Berks and N orh county . Big flags for lower elevations as 925’s have tickled a tad milder on some guidance and by the time they cool it’s more of a parting shot

euro op just need to look at a QPF comparison from route 2 north into CNE . Significantly less by about 1/4 to 1/3. Who knows

Actually when I looked at QPF this was more juiced than 12z the 925 temps were a touch milder at 0z Monday but I was surprised clown weren’t juicier given a bit more QPF

Possible but I don’t think I trust it here . Now if other models join sure but not currently

I think unless 7H tightens up even a little (remains closed when passing by/ under) it will be on weaker side of guidance Kuchie version even keeps you at 5-6”

Still pretty crappy I’d say 7H is closed then open and back and forth . Weak mid levels comparatively

Gfs is NW a bit ( it was so far SE this was basically no shock ) not that juicy but def better than 18z for many

Better WAA Thump for Most of W CT

Let’s see if the GFS fouls another one off its nuts in the big game

Some impressive gradients yikes Power issues for 495 corridor . Ray flickering ?

Now batting Reggie Oooo reggie

Would it shock folks if this S stream tickles more north , if confluence allows