STILL N OF PIKE

If this is amped like BTVWRF shows...then NW of Albany a little may jack/pivot

Ukie is a tick east from its super amped 0z run but still is only snow for like Breton woods NH to Sugarbush VT at 18z

You gotta wonder (for CNE/NNE) if this is potpourri falling from the sky in most areas or aggregates giving crap airmass and no high pressure within 2000 miles seems like whatever models do next 24 hours we will be looking at a nice nowcast event

wagons NW can stop now with this system just glad it went somewhere (NW) that can actually produce snow instead of 34 deform rains over pike area

To chase or not to chase .

How big a role will elevations play given we rely on dynamics if we imagine for a moment the gfs solution were to play out

Is it snowing , is snow imminent if the first two answers are no...remind yourself of these key questions the 4 months.

That would be a Heavy wet snow I assume

did KURO inch colder or weaker /milder more progressive?

We Guantanamo drip drop if that low takes that track I would say best shot is mid level magic near Mitch

Was that the march nor’easter in 2018 with great track that buried catskills and only far western SNE

Box says worst case 1 inch snow or .1 icing. They are Selling any potential

Gfs with a 34 rain deform dandy as well $$

I’m sure this storm track /pattern will still be there when climo supports snow lol just messin The nam has been the leader bringing this south and consolidating its own goal posts from a deform in monads to about Pike for several runs

Ya your BL temps benefited from longitude even if mid levels flipped . I would rather do 5 days in jail then go thru a storm like that stuck in such a location. Lol no brainer

Just to touch quickly on a storm I got screwed on Royally was 93 Superstorm what a tough one to swallow in SE Mass when Atlanta is left w more snow than you after a change to heavy rain in evening and 3” of cement that I told my neighbor on vacation I would shovel . Literally 3” that required a axe. Max depth was about 11 Prior to the rains. If only I had a car back then . Hideous that and December 92 was a serious shiat sandwich handed to KTAN when areas just W /NW got buried . Thank goodness I went with my dad that next day and we went to diamond hill (just a burial there in 92’)

The nam (ya I know) has threaded the proverbial needle a couple times in its last 4 runs for Ray over to Me / and far northern Mass. Not counting on that at all but it shows some potential . Would think N .ORH county into Monads gotta still watch . Hubbdave!

PNA domain covers over to Rockies I believe . Ridge centered over Rockies is usually favorable to a trough in east IIRC and is more favorable for east coast snow lovers w amped lows (compared to something amped in -EPO we usually need some block to squash- redevelop something under us or better to cash in with overrunning and well timed highs A little Davis straits ridging or a little -Nao gives us much more opportunities for favorable outcomes in coastal plain IIRC in many -EPO’s

Agree , poor word choice But amped would be favorable for congrats Cleveland / Detroit when any potential blocking abates I’m intrigued by Sunday . Watching pats on phone from Temple/ New Ipswich,NH perhaps

Scott I know what your saying and I value it . Half your responses are like playing parents to those who can’t swallow the medicine. I understand what increases our odds near coastal plain and what doesn’t and you stated it well . Probabilities

Ya no blocking or Davis straits ridging and we would probably need to hope for nothing amplified and maybe an overrunning event and a scooter high. Otherwise it’s the all familiar cold/dry mild/wet favored look

That flipped ray to me w 4-8”

Ended up South again, weak 7H looks strange between 18 and 21z Sunday

Wouldn’t be horrible to have any semblance of a high pressure for this i don’t see a high anywhere in North America (mid west /high plains / maritime/ rockies /Quebec / Calgary

what are we going to need..? the ULL to close off as it takes a specific track?