Something that comes to mind with modeling and past systems
When i see rapid mid level deepening forecast i am less surprised to see a low end up closing off earlier and Slowing /Temporarily stalling Just East of Southern half of Jersey Coast and really hammering Pocano's /Catskills /E slope and bending many over in SNE
I DO NOT see that rapid deepening forecast so i could still definitely see this untucking ....wether that is enough to change the forcing mechanisms enough to generate good lift east of the river Monday nite we shall see how much it untucks. IT could still be an Elongated low from off S NJ ENE to the Cape like boxing day. The elongation at least kept a Northerly drain going in much of E MA