Every single piece of guidance
HRRR, Rap, Nam, BTV WRF, Euro, Gfs, icon
has shifted WELL east since 12z
she gone and ain’t returning
we enjoy next several hours
Great storm ! Rick did you clear an area/board for this measurement
looked like someone just south of you is getting 30” or def in Albany general area given earlier reports
You realize 18z shifted east right and moved that 6-8 from that the 12z has falling at the bridge and the 18z moved that east close to the elbow ...
and where will it move it at 0z (out to sea )
Typical model bias not being progressive enough until hopes are up and then the final kick in nads while weenies are raised. Cruel bias lol
the now cast is likely now thru 5-6z
It’s funny that the best models in the world often show a good storm and make it look great then have a hard time being progressive enough until 12 hours out. It’s a cruel bias lol . Yes I’m happy w my snow just not big money models that blow
Well
when the nam pulls the rug out w a progressive push at 18z by moving the good lift 75 miles east at 12z Tuesday after the euro did the same thing on its 12z run there is a excellent chance the writing is on the wall with regard to round 2 for most .
Due to the configuration of the ULL and the spoke of vorticity and it’s timing of deepening and NW pull this ain’t set in stone but it feels more like waiting on a miracle .
If I was a betting man I would take what the models show and go 30-miles east unless 0z doesn’t budge an inch east , seems they always inch progressively as we get inside 24 hours . But obviously every event is different and nothing would surprise me with this system .
i would love to wake up to a low 15 miles east of CHH and slowly backing in and deepening