STILL N OF PIKE

About 6.5 weeks till that

I recall in the early 90’s the weather channel had those wind chill maps they ran every hour . The maps were increments of 20f, there seemed to often be -40/-60 upper plains /Minnesota-20/-40 NNE and often -20 to 0 over SNE as I recall . There were often that cold drier clipper pattern with air masses from Siberia or wherever . I do not miss those in the slightest but they did certainly seem more common. I think I recall Dave Schwartz) with his super smooth delivery on many of those

I think he is in N Maine 32 and Snow today for Caribou

In case folks are struggling to understand the am posts snow chances increase for up and in Rain chances likely and increase for SNE Cp in case folks are looking for what is likely based on current look . SNE could get lucky if we “catch a break “ During that period but the airmass will be dunglike for that time of year .

Ignoring the North east completely Regarding the 18z gfs , there was basically NO snow for the cascades of Washington the Rockies (Utah/ Co/ ) or even Jackson hole (or Montana) , very little over the sierras (6-10”?) and that is a 384 hour run (seems extremely dry to me ) . The only area that did well seemed to be parts of Arizona . Seems unusual . 0z , 6z and 12z weren’t much different. I hadn’t really looked at things for days but what is driving this across such a large area

I stopped grading winters years ago because if I was being honest most are fails compared to what I want , and I can’t bring myself to grade based on average climo (which is probably what should be the measuring stick regarding retention , snowfall temps etc) it’s like Kevin trying to convince himself the average dilf he finds in Tolland is a catch , can’t do it if anyone is still reading this I probably grade based on how much snow I experience (chase at least half of what I see) , how many weekends it rains to Canada , and if it’s useless bitter cold and dry For me this winter went from good to now fair (went to VT 3x)

Great movie

Beer

I haven’t really followed things that closely for a bit but I am rather surprised that even an Op gfs run has highs that above normal for the period “prior to a relaxation” . If it wasn’t posted I wouldn’t look as I have stopped looking at 850 anomalies and ensembles for a bit . I have to say that is kind of comical and something has certainly changed with the predicted temp profiles offered by said pattern change if that is a realistic temperature guide . I’m not saying anything more or less . I don’t even like it cold if it’s gonna be dry . It just makes me wonder if models have another sort of bias this winter where things are going on somewhere in the globe that lends models to lean too cold our neck of the woods at day 10-15 or of its they just couldn’t account for remnants of pacific airmass or the colder airmass lies just north of us now and some blip caused it to not come as far south.

I don’t think we get to Jan 20 with 0-2” but if so Most will see that if that is actually the case a BN winter snowfall is extremely likely for all in SNE , places further south that ave 15-25” can always make up that deficit, as unlikely as it would be . I just don’t like talkin hypotheticals that require 24 days of future zero’s , I don’t think it’s reasonable at this time at all

We are on to January

Tim Kelley is preparing to make sacrifices to ULLR in his latest jay peak weather update

Turn it up , scan the weeklies

interesting thread

Today thru end of month should be + 10 or so to add to those departures .( prolly another 1/2 degree)

Ya GFS has 1.65 QPF thru sat am. Enjoy , green up the grass for NYE

First week of January looks like it could wind up steiny the 0z euro shows how if next Friday snuck a storm up the coast , the high might be in that all too familiar position position for the CP ..caveats @ 8.5 days out

Regarding any Hail Mary for Saturday and a phase , That northern stream energy if anything usually corrects more progressive (diving down from the north )

Enjoy S FL Take up pickle ball if your on Naples side or enjoy the beaches and scenery on SE side

Gfs says BL is cooked outside berks /monads showers

People forget it was a damn miracle to get anything from that storm . 2 days prior nothing was forecast . Zip . Was the biggest comeback I’ve seen on modeling inside 72 hrs Then the nam at 18z came out and buried us (out of nowhere) and the major weather centers tossed it , then then the 18z gfs came out and buried us and I think forecasters were like “holy crap” . They didn’t know what was up . It was madness on the board . I was thankful for the 10” of arctic sand I saw in Framingham . Zip was forecast 2 days prior . Certainly wasn’t here we go again with 10” I mean and I know a bunch of people were dissatisfied I just couldn’t see it

So far today is going well

That’s not even a bad track . Delmarva to Block island for Thursday system

Nice drink on the euro 1.5 across SNE not much NNE . Fri pm / Sat am sees sprinkles for SNE

47 in Bedford Mass, Sun out , no wind . Comfortable