STILL N OF PIKE
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Everything posted by STILL N OF PIKE
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Honestly most folks watching have a extremely limited understanding , and just drool and nod
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I was thinking 15-20
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I don’t think it works that way You want it to speed up to catch the energy from the first vort slow down and juice up the broad system. That’s my limited understanding
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What’s the benefit ? The pope returns to burn down the house ?
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The follow up Shortwave tries to regenerate it Sunday pm over the general area with a focus NJ S sne drops 2-4” Sunday pm for RI to cape with Lollis higher on cape
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Not happening at 0z gfs south I.e Garbage for SNE
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Looks (weak ) “shreddy” to me at hr 84
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As long as people aren’t surprised if it is a solid shortwave capable of warning snows I’ll be watching model runs closely . I understand it can go either way still . If it goes to shredville folks will know as the page count per day shrinks violently
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Days and days and days of beer
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Times like these It’s important to mention the resources weenies here have . The wx weenie hotline is open 24/7 with extra staff thru Sunday . I’m not only the President but also a client . You may be put on hold during 12z and 0z model runs but we have updated soothing squeeze box tunes courtesy of another client .
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Ya we basically went the NW members to not disappear , there has been two camps for about 36 hours
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I didn’t hear much of anything on it , which is never ideal but it only goes to 90? But it’s ensembles go to 144
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No there isn’t but I’m not setting that up as a lower goal post either . 3-6” is fine with me and I’m usually happy when snow is falling .
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As Tippy said, the shortwaves all bunched up and over an area where sampling ( I suppose is not conductive for best accuracy ?) will lead to us being at the end of a fire hose with the end signifying the low position on Sunday am , flopping up and down and left and right . That being said if multiple models show the same trend and do so over next 24 hours obviously that is weighted higher
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I kind of joked about it , they just run them for giggles and log in and watch weenie reactions here
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I mean I know some have repeated this belief for those “off hour” runs so I’m pretty sure it was legit believed ,and I didn’t think it was an issue of any consequence but I wasn’t super confident so I wanted to know what Mets thought
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The Met offices run them purely for entertainment , it’s sorta like they sit back at noaa and giggle as they pour vodka into the models and see what they print out at 6z/18z maybe oceanstwx has data on this or Ryan or Will , anyone in on this or anyone else that has some hard data
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Yes we know you were haha. After a great run people throw confetti and high five , after a bad run people say WTF . It’s not always sunny in Philadelphia and there is value in discussing why things break weaker and stronger Im just having fun and I think you are as well, we shall see how it plays out . Obviously we want some shovel-able snow . I haven’t set any goal posts for accumulations
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You have to have a little more patience with having some model discussion when models show something that isn’t jolly . It’s not cancelled , it’s conversation of what is actually happening on the data we look at to track . Yes I know a bunch of people comment along the same lines but that’s the ebb and flow of tracking .
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Tippy has /was hammering this attenuating home with violence
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On GEFS I mean If you look at 500mb level for Sunday 0z you can see much less amplification in front of the eastern shortwave on the last run , compared to last nite Trough out west coast is shallower and there is a significantly stronger trough N of Texas that prob dampens our system and shoots it out weaker and faster
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He’s probably buying a bigger shovel ?
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good luck accumulating much at those weak rates during the day and temps around 32-33 for many of the weaker longer crowd.
