Ensembles tightened a little
many seem in a freaking good spot to give a very solid warning event to most of SNE
lets see this sustain itself bc we are dealing with a rather delicate interaction with secondary shortwave that if 6 hrs later or sooner makes a considerable difference in duration and banding
I think some were wanting a ticker tape parade
i think gfs also stole its thunder a tad and many posters N of pike it was moderate / reassuring but nothing wow for
WPC snow probs just starting to come into range thru 12z Sunday . They like Poughkeepsie to ORH to ASH and N about 75 miles of that line in a rectangle for highest probs of 8” plus thru Sunday 12z
was posted around 10am
Ukie seems to be seeing a touch of what some amped models see but doesn’t curl up tight to cape
The broad SW area of Maine and S Nh are increasing today on most models cept gfs
Wx weenie mental health hotline is looking for more counselors , we have high volume calls this am
we recommend you distance yourself from model output while on hold and look at photos of puppies
Seems like the second short wave interaction and the details of it , will be tbe bigger driving factor now in future track and amounts , would you agree or ..and if so when do you think models really get confident in that
Ya you kinda want the nam and rgem amped at this range , and if the euro ens follow then I’d give them more weight , until then I’d guess the Meso’s might have a amped bias
Let’s see if nam can give us something freaky today . Not Saying it will at 12z , it’s very early in the run but has potential . part of nams value is in entertaining
It is ironic to me that Wolfie usually has a much stronger emotional sounding reaction than the person he says is panicking . I mean panic lol is a stretch but he has concerns at his latitude