STILL N OF PIKE

Yup , closer phase . Just S of MVY-ACK at 18z and a few tics north

Mild and more tucked ?

Hmmm

I think for the CP they are very solid

Gives people a much more realistic idea of accumulations they may see when they defer to positive snow depth change in my opinion

Theoretically Would the messenger shuffle also relate to the phasing potential and CCB area or not really in this situ

Reggie has the phase a a bit earlier and gets that good 850 inflow going . Can really see this over Rays into SE CNE area but also further inland where snow of varying intensity is enjoyed by most

Oh totally , I’d believe it more if RGEM followed suit in 15 mins

does the RGEM have this bias

Do you have time to volunteer on the hotline today

When the model runs are good there is a dopamine drip But remember when they aren’t there is the weather weenie hot line, we are fully staffed give us a call ..before you scream at wife or kids . We have been there and we understand .

Time for a pope rising from ashes meme thou I think he said suppressed and Mild

This is still the nam , so I wouldn’t put that much weight into it did have a faster secondary vort that caught first piece just in time to get a CCB going for E SNE and SE CNE. Mid levels strengthened quite a bit between 18z and 21z and CCB got established for a few

nam is juiced Secondary vort maybe a hair faster

Looks like that secondary vort at 12z (now) extends from SE British Columbia to about SE Oregon

If that influence comes back you have much higher confidence in a higher floor and that is also how you get the likely double digit totals in areas that see banding and that is also where the better ratios and longer duration moderate to heavy snows on Sunday after brunch were coming from WPC and Nws don’t windshield wiper their forecast amounts and if today keeps the secondary stronger short wave too far away to even partial phase you will see them take amounts down lower . If the short wave has a partial phase amounts prob stay similar and a fuller phase likely increases them is my take

I think most is covered in Wills explanation , but additionally There is the fact most of the big cutters screamers inside runners aren’t depending on a phase ( just in time) to be large strong systems ..like our big snowers. So ours are more likely to go poof or show up late when 2 perfectly timed vorts can be modeled with that Detail and can’t at day 10

Plus I mean these cutters seem to be longer tracking strong systems as opposed to something dependent on 2 pieces phasing over east coast and if and when that interaction occurs like many of our larger storms

965 mb Just north of Buffalo doesn’t have the bitter cold high on backside like last Xmas storm or I’d consider doing something , winds should still roar but not sustained at 70

Looks a little beefed up was this stronger initial SW or more interaction returning from second and first during Sunday

If anything as usual it’s the opposite

This was becoming clear at 0z and it was well received as you can imagine as I posted about it I wanted more discussion around it and if I have your ear Will, I realize and most should it was a very delicate interaction with subtle upstream changes in second SW strength and speed having large changes in Sunday days snow duration and intensity. Do you think that interaction(between short waves can come back ) and if so when would we need to see this by . I think the goal posts are a bit wider then many think , if we are not depending on the first weakening short wave for majority of accumulation , for the period when ratio’s we’re lower

He likes reality

Ukie . Same deal . Later less interaction . About 5-8” region wide on 10:1 clowns I won’t wait for euro but I do weight that most

The nws will adjust down if CCB doesn’t happen , there had been more and more secondary shortwave interaction for several cycles and they factored that in . You won’t get 8-12 with simply a weakening first short wave , and yes there are levels of interaction , it’s not all or nothing , it’s something important to watch