MikeB_01

00z GFS is going with a cooler air column that what has been seen in the model in the previous runs. at preceip onset (12z sat morning) the precip is down to 26°. That is a 3° drop from 18z, a 2° drop from 12 z and a 3° drop from last nights 00z. This is also translating to the mid levels. Still flirting with 32°, but its an improvement from the other runs. I say this, but we all know how these systems work. WAA always wins. We will snow for the first 5 minutes, move to some brief sleet, freezing rain, and then turn on the garden hose. All rain. I'm hoping that I can get up early enough on Saturday to see some decent rates early in the morning.

Euro and the Ukie look almost identical. Anyone have access to the EPS? Would like to see the variability between the members.

Well, the Ukie could have been better lol

i'd take it... Until it changes, Im singing O Canada.

In case anyone is curious...

Euro showing a pretty decent thump on saturday. This if of course before a change over to some mix and then all rain. Not sure it pans out, but its something to watch.

Record day today. Also, the 12th january day on record to make it over the 70° mark

Just to mention ---> Candian and Euro have a pretty similar look in the upper levels for tuesday. Very different from 18z GFS. Im waiting up for the 00z gfs tonight. Curious to see if anything changes or if it continues to be slightly rainier than the euro

A day? That’s generous. I need to see it on the ground with my own eyes before I believe it .

Starting to see some signs of the models seeing cold during the first week of January - just need to hope we get the precip too.

10 year anniversary of a major screw job... https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/

LOL

In case you want to do a little early analysis on how the storm is looking right now and what it will do, the 15z RAP is initializing really well. The thermal gradients are nearly perfect. The only thing that I am seeing different is the convergence area off the east coast. The current analysis is more norther/zonal and the model initialized has a more southern look to it. Eventually, the model brings that rain/snow/mix line right through AGC. Granted, these are fluid systems, but to me it looks like the system may track even a touch further north due to the area of convergence. Will be interesting to see how that changes over the course of the day.

My prediction for tonight --->

yuck... nasty Tuesday morning commute

keep in mind this is the 00z hires nam that is indicating a quick transition to some moderate snow that will amount in a few inches. I cannot for the life of me, figure out how this sounding profile yields snow. Any ideas? Am I looking at this wrong? It looks to me like it is still above freezing at 10,000 ft and no colder closer to the ground. No way this is snow - right?

Whether we get anything or not, the CPC and the models have been indicating a warm up somewhere around Christmas. Starting to see a flip in that. Here is the Euro. Check out the increased high latitude blocking [emoji102] .

I'm dreaming of a white christmas...

This is a few runs old, but its interesting to see that the EPS has the snowfall there. Both the ens and the op have the storm, just need to watch and see how the ingredients start to come together.

if you want some good news, here is the EPS for next week. That ridge pumping out west looks good for us. Feel like we might see some cool temps to come along .

Nope... Im coming in with a prediction of nothing. A few flakes flying around while we sleep. Thats all

This looks like a fairly similar set up to the one that we just had. A convergence of two pieces of energy that forms a low pressure center somewhere around southern Ohio/Pennsylvania. The one thing that leaves me pessimistic is mentioned in the discussion. "amount of moisture remaining in the post- frontal environment remain inconsistent." Its just really rare to have a front to come through and keep it moist enough to continue to precipitate once the temp drops enough to allow it to snow. I thought we would see some snow thursday afternoon and then it just dried out so fast once the front went through. I want to keep watching to see if the trough can dig a little deeper rather and form the low a little further south. We might have enough cold air in place that way to get an inch or two out of the system

Honestly, i don't listen to him and don't trust him. His "no hype" model is great if you never want to be wrong, but it also doesn't tell people what they need to know about the upcoming weather. We could be looking at a 4-8" storm within 36 hours and he would still be calling it "snow shower" on his whiteboard weather. Its ok to give a little hype when it is in the rhelm of possibiliites. I will be curious to see how the Euro performs modeling this system for early next week. I typically view the Euro as pretty reliable 3-5 days out, but it struggled this the changeover from this past storm - it never really happened...

Yes. Looking forward to seeing some flakes flying in the air. It will be interesting to see how fast the cold air gets in here today. Not thinking it will amount to anything, but would love to see some rates if we get caught under a band.

Welcome back everyone! Excited for another year of tracking - hopefully this year we manage to avoid the screwzone at least once and can cash in on a few nice storms. Anyway its nice to be tracking in early November. That being said, the Euro backed off a little bit on the 12z run. Hard to analyze what happened based on the surface maps from Pivotal. Would love to see what is happening at the H5 level. Anyway, should still see some accumulating snowfall. Which makes me happy Happy Tracking!