Honestly, chances for 4+ looking pretty good.
I will say, I am a little nervous and skeptical about this one. Relying on the backend of a system to cool the column enough to start snowing is something that I have a hard time relying on. It just never seems to happen fast enough without drying out the column at the same time. Model support seems good this time, but i wouldn't be surprised to see the low end of these amounts either.