MikeB_01

HREF for thursday- friday. Something interesting that is showing itself on the hires models is another dry slot just like we had with this past storm. Looks like i would snow thursday morning, take a break and then start back up with another round. Havent been seeing that on some of the mid range models. No matter, the HREF just like all other guidance at this point is focusing in on 2-4 over the course of 18-24 hours. Maybe we can get the last second jog to the NW. Doubt it, but maybe.

There. No one should feel too bad about this past storm. Had to go really far west to find deep snow. Can’t believe how far the warm air pushed .

I say it all the time.. I love the SREFs .

Even warm patterns can deliver storms. Less likely? Sure. But not impossible. .

SREFs were a slight improvement on their 15z run.

Agree with this. I wasnt here for the historic 2010 storm. I was in Youngstown still. While we picked up about a foot, you guys know how good it feels to be so close to something epic. Even picking up a foot stung in that situation.

I'm also not sure that the probabilities support the watch yet. Someone correct me if I'm wrong ( i feel like we talk about this all the time, but i can never remember), but. i think the criteria for watch/warning is 7in over 12 hours or 9in over 24. I think we are more in the advisory range and those don't get issued until 36 hours at the earliest. Im not 100% sure though. WPC probabilities show the chance is there, but not super high probabilities either.

Still be careful if you have to go out this morning. Pretty classic looking FZDZ on the sounding this morning.

NAM continued to move SE. Let’s do this all over again for the next 72 hours. Bring on the snow please! .

KAGC 2m T just jumped 1.8° in five minutes. 33.8° but still reporting ZR.

Officially 32.2 at my house. All rain from here on out.

1/8” of ice at my house so far .

I’m at 31.3°. Slow steady climb over the last few hours. Maybe a little delayed, but it’s there. Sleet all the way up to meadville .

Crazy how warm it is already at 850. 4°c. We never stood a chance with that warm air working in here. 27.8° F at the airport right now. Bad icing situation .

Already a glaze of ice here in Mt Lebanon. No snow .

Yuck.... here it comes .

No mention of rain in their afternoon discussion either. Seems strange when you think about climo and all of the Hi-res modeling showing the transition to all rain. Maybe they are thinking some CAD will keep it all mixed precip? I dont know. Thoughts? .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... No further changes were needed for the aftn update as the first snow-supporting shortwave has exited with the second poised to reinitiate snow, sleet, and freezing rain through tonight. Previous... The overall forecast trend remains on track with the latest deterministic trends showing the 850 mb low crossing Ohio, and the sfc low moving across the Pittsburgh area tonight. The resulting temperature profile will alter precipitation phase and thus snow and ice amounts. Snow amount has been tweaked downward and ice adjusted for the overall trend with sfc temperature providing some accretion limitations for some areas. None of this will alter overall conditions for the Winter Storm Warning or Advisory which remain in effect due to impact on travel.

Could see some awesome rates that close to the line. .

Yes, maybe this errors keeps up from raining at all. Bad for anyone that would have to drive.

Yes when i said scrutiny, this is what i mean. I don't think they deserve it. We all see what these storms can do in just a few model runs. But its not about what we understand it is about the general public. My neighbors a perfect examples. I saw them two days ago and they were asking me about the snow that is coming. I told them that 6+ was on the table ( just like we all would have). They responded with " yea, i'll believe that when i see it. I saw on WPXI they were calling for 6-10. Its just hype to get people to click their links. I wish i had a job where i could be wrong all the time and face no consequences." Unfortunately, this is who they have to deal with.

No bueno... lots of Mets going to get a lot of scrutiny from this one. Looks like Youngstown might even sleet for a while now. .

Wow. What a swath of 8+ and we couldn’t get 50 miles to the south east. I hope they are wrong, but nothing we can do. .

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