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MikeB_01

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Everything posted by MikeB_01

  1. MikeB_01
    here are the top 3 analogs on CIPS. This is based on the 12z NAM at hour 36
  2. MikeB_01
    I know purple is 6 and pink is 12. But distinguishing them on those maps is a different language .
  3. MikeB_01
    15z run of SREFs up to 8.
  4. MikeB_01
    Agreed. We could start summer on January 19th and i would be very pleased
  5. MikeB_01
    19/20 of those are solid. .
  6. MikeB_01
    It is inevitable for the evolution of the storm. Where it goes and how long it stays around will change totals. Lots of models have the dry slot to the south and east of AGC. .
  7. MikeB_01
    Hilarious considering the NAM just put out 30+ on Erie. He has 3-6
  8. MikeB_01
    This pleases me. .
  9. MikeB_01
    I feel like a lot of the guidance is on board though. Everything except the NAM is east. NAM the only one that is stubbornly holding out on a westward solution. As i said earlier, Im not sure how much stock mets are putting in NAM. Here is the warning map for CLE NWS. Last 4-5 runs of the NAM have dropped more than a foot on CLE and points east. Not even a WWA for Cuyahoga County (where cleveland is).
  10. MikeB_01
    Even when in range, i HRRR is a superior model to the NAM
  11. MikeB_01
    Definitely a different set up than 2019. The ULL went right over Pittsburgh. And about 48 - 36 hr out, we started to see the westward move. The WTD showed itself early on.
  12. MikeB_01
    Cautiously optimistic. That is how i would describe my mood right now. Nowcasting strategy -> Take a Xanax, grab some snow brews, and enjoy the uncertainty
  13. MikeB_01
    This is a fun one... This is the 6hr snowfall while we are under the deform band. 1"+/hr rates showing up on HRRR
  14. MikeB_01
    Yeah, still some time to wobble. Could easily see some changes over the next 24. The good news is that the hi res models are coming in as they are. Heavy and consistent.
  15. MikeB_01
    Dry slot in westmoreland county on that 18z HRRR, but it does't seem to change the accumulations a whole lot. Once the atmosphere saturates, that deformation band is crushing us.
  16. MikeB_01
    This is what I was talking about earlier. Experience and intuition. However, ice would be a reflection of freezing rain, which we won’t see. Air too cold at 925 .
  17. MikeB_01
    Temp profile looks good here. .
  18. MikeB_01
    Look at that 31.5 bullseye in Erie .
  19. MikeB_01
    It’s pretty expansive. Though it totally depends on the warm layer aloft. We know the surface-925 will be plenty cold. Even if the 850 level is 33 for a little, I think it is very brief. We have a deepening ULL with heavy rates and it will cause that column to cool quickly. .
  20. MikeB_01
    Woah. .
  21. MikeB_01
    GFS? .
  22. MikeB_01
    I just think this is where met intuition / experience comes in ahead of modeling. The discussions are full of comments about the rate of evaporative cooling. Even if we sleet, it should be brief and then we should be thumping again.
  23. MikeB_01
    Honestly, i didn't think the RGEM was bad. I saw the sleet show up, but the column cooled fast enough that Im not worried. Awesome rates on that run.
  24. MikeB_01
    Me neither. Especially that wide spread. Now that is definitely the high end. That is the max. But I’ll take a chance. .
  25. MikeB_01
    Beautiful deform band on that run.
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