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MikeB_01

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Everything posted by MikeB_01

  1. MikeB_01
    I'll say it again. Guys, chill. Let this play out for a little.
  2. MikeB_01
    until it starts FZR at my house, i dont believe anything.
  3. MikeB_01
    511 PA camera on the WV/PA border. All snow
  4. MikeB_01
    At least on radar, morgantown looks to have changed back over to snow. Anyone down there?
  5. MikeB_01
    ok everyone... chill. We knew the southern areas could mix. Its understandable that morgantown could be mixing right now.
  6. MikeB_01
    Air is saturating and radar filling in. .
  7. MikeB_01
    Adding a note here. Since the flakes started. My temp has dropped almost 1.5° .
  8. MikeB_01
    30° here and I have flakes in the air. .
  9. MikeB_01
    I thought i told you to stop worrying about mixing lol Look at the sounding. This is not a sounding that would indicate a mix. Even though the radar is pink, there is nothing in the temperature profile that indicated mix.
  10. MikeB_01
    Good news on the mixing front. At 850, above freezing temps are not making it past the center part of the storm core. Therefore as long as we are on the west side of the low, we shouldn't need to worry about mixing.
  11. MikeB_01
    Dry yes. It'll take a little to overcome the dry air. The wetbulb is at 22° though. Once the air saturates, the temp shouldn't rise anymore once the precip starts
  12. MikeB_01
    I think the trends with the models that are now in range have been good. 3K had a slight east shift. HRRR has been moving east and lessening the dry slot since its 12z run. GFS and CMC and RGEM have all been steady and good. We are in the game.
  13. MikeB_01
    That is modeled and not a concern. That is not the dry slot that is the big concern. Should fill in rapidly.
  14. MikeB_01
    Yea, i'm not woprrie about the RAP because the HRRR has been better with that dry slot with every run
  15. MikeB_01
    Lordy... no dry slot there
  16. MikeB_01
    15z barely dry slots. If this run pans out I think the rates will drop off significantly, for a short time, but then at hr 18 it is thumping with 8+ already on the ground.
  17. MikeB_01
    Liking the trends on the HRRR
  18. MikeB_01
    Nope. The soundings on the HRRR look like all snow
  19. MikeB_01
    Yes. Even the HRRR has trended a little better since the 12z run
  20. MikeB_01
    She's done it before. Also something to consider, and I do not know the answer -> How well do the models do with Low placement when directly traveling over the apps? Do orographic features cause the models to struggle with exact placement and transfer?
  21. MikeB_01
    Notice on the ptype map, the main L transfers east and the secondary L moves further east in Central PA. This is out best case i think
  22. MikeB_01
    RGEM filling in the dryslot early and wrapping that deform band around towards us
  23. MikeB_01
    Please drop that 21" red dot right on my house
  24. MikeB_01
    We are going to be just fine. I'm riding the 12"+ hope into the sunset
  25. MikeB_01
    @MillvilleWx I saw you offer in the Central PA forum, but us over here in the Steel City would appreciate your thoughts on our chances for 12+" Thanks!
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