the_other_guy

Do you need model guidance for that? Look at any common weather app on your phone…it has been there for days. December is done

It was brief and intense. Less than 5 mins.

I saw that dark blob out there and went to the radar…what a day for early May!

of course there’s nostalgia and Rose colored glasses. Was there a guarantee of a cutter with 55 to 60 every Christmas week? absolutely not Was there snow on the ground many more days because the temperature was colder whatever we got and I’m talking in the five boroughs…hell yes When we went from snow to rain or had a rain on top of snow, was it often in the mid 40s and did we finish with snow cover afterwards? Yes Drastically different climate, particularly for some odd reason in the last two weeks of December. I say it every year: if you are a betting man, bet 50 over 30 on xmas day

this isn’t like the old days where you went up to 44 with rain. 60F nothing sticking around. We cut nowadays it turns into April

absolutely pouring out. I think the next storm we are really dealing with is a cutter on the 26th. that’s like a week out anything beyond that is fantasyland sadly

check out that squall line over the finger lakes down to Scanton!

it would need to be a drastic drastic change

Out of the next 14 days, a handful of days look at or below normal. The rest are AN. That means any storm is going to have to manufacture cold air…something we havent done well around here in a while. Its exciting to talk about threats and such, but I think you should keep that in mind.

Dude, the western ski resorts are dying for snow. They are off to their worst start in years. They have highway signs that say “pray for snow” Are you even aware what is going on out there?

I said this yesterday. Very erratic

dude, it’s gonna be in the mid 30s, 40s or 50s for the rest of the month. some of you guys are living in fantasy land. Id love it to happen, but the rest of December looks like toast

That would be a mega flip. Out west is dying this year with low snow and AN. Have we ever seen a winter with such a large flip like that for the whole country? It would be extraordinary

Unbelievable stats in this new climate. Simply unreal especially for December post 2015.

Yeh guys keep talking about cold…I really see a lot of up and down

Why I truly hate Manhattan…you are so out of touch with the natural world. Its awful. But I know thats why people love it.

this is a great little storm. We have a couple of days of cold weather… I wonder when our next snow will be. looks pretty warm going forward. but I’m a Met fan. You gotta take the wins when they come.

5 inches Hastings on Hudson

I had a feeling north would do better due to temps. I mentioned that last night. Lets see if it plays out

All coated in Westchester. Very fine snow. I was worried about the city being rain to start.

im curious how colder temps up north vs lighter precip plays out in terms of total snowfall. in a vacuum, the heaviest snow should be at a point lake Jfk where a place like White Plains gets less. but when you factor in temperatures, I wonder if that’s actually the case. Wont know until it is done

you can’t reliably book an xmas ski week in Lake Placid now. they have had a solid run of bad xmas weeks for a while now with a few exceptions. It’s only 300 miles north. It’s not like it’s in Siberia. If its 55 here, it is 45 there.

Man, you can bet on that 50° weather between the 20th and 30th of December every year. For reference when I was a kid in the 80s and 90s, we went to Lake Placid every year the day after Christmas…. And it was always reliably, cold and snowy. The changes particularly in the latter half of December have been astounding in my lifetime

It hasnt become more pronounced. it is the same historical pattern. More pronounced would be if that threshold changed to 5 inches, or occurred more frequently. Now, assuming we finish Dec with 3 inches of snow this year. And we wrap up with snow in the low to mid 20s, that would be an interesting April discussion…would this have been an AN winter in a different climate? Is that the new AN?

The 4 inch threshold is just a historical marker. Much like accumulating snow before the middle of November leads to a BN total snowfall winter. You won’t find a scientific reason for it. It’s an observation on historical data that you can make a casual correlation with. And the casual correlation that a poster like blue wave has made is that in La Niña winters if we don’t get over 4 inches of snow in December you can expect a below normal snowfall winter. Now, if you wanted to dive deeper into that you could say La Niña shoots its load during December and if not much comes from that, that usually is a good indication that January and February arent going to be much better. That’s more scientific because La Niña is frontloaded for the month of December. But the reality is, these are just historical markers and you can choose to dismiss them as you wish. But better to have a flash light for possible clues then go into January blind expecting an equal chance. Historical data says otherwise.