mikem81

We need more posts like this with some actual insight...

I am assuming the CMC and Euro dont have a rising PNA like the GFS so there is a trough out west that forces this to cut into Chicago. Not sure what a -4 AO is good for at this point..

trend today has been awful. cold this week followed by warm rain followed by very cold.

More rain....

Looks like the CMC through 96

Keep in mind the OP has 2 seperate systems. There is a LP that misses east followed by the stronger one that gets phased into the coast... Not sure if the GEFS is blending these all

Yes, but.... trend is usually against us and west. I would much rather be seeing a bunch of OTS solutions right now. These rarely miss east of guidance

It changes over to snow at end... Very strong and weird track

GFS is rain as well. Looks like 0Z EURO

It will be better than the CMC no matter what...

the CMC looks like it will cut big time though

The goal was to show that the GFS was actually most accurate 6 days out. The EURO and CMC were stronger and about 50-100 miles too far west with the secondary. Not saying this will happen with next Thurs/Fri Storm but the evolution is different with a LP coming up from the gulf and one coming into the lakes and then timing....

There will be energy near the lakes and the interaction b/w the coastal and the lakes energy will determine strength and track. The OP has that piece phasing and dragging an extremely strong storm inland (looks like number 2 group). Number 3 cluster looks like a true cutter or cold front to me with no coastal. Cluster 1 is a BM track

EURO CMC GFS

So which model was most accurate 6 days out: Current LP

Surprised how low amounts were in Scranton area. Crazy how you needed elevation here

Here is 12Z

It looks much better than 0Z:

EURO looks much better to me than last few runs

Next week's storm has a much different evolution than tomorrow's. It almost looks like a redeveloping clipper that comes out of canada in front of the artic front. It also has a much colder airmass in front of it than today's. Who knows what it will bring.

I am very confused by the mood in here. The next 2 weeks look great after the Friday rainstorm. the Canadian OP has a cutter next week. The ensembles and GFS/Euro OP all look good with plenty of coastal potential

well said. Ocean temp is at 51 at the station I usually use for my area (https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065) Winter threats are hard to even take seriously in NYC/LI until after 12/15 given the ocean temps. I would hate a perfect pattern in early December as we'd still have issues. I think people got excited by the early -AO/NAO where the reality is that we are finally entering a more workable time period starting next week. I would still keep an eye on the Friday storm given the block and the weird track but it was always a long shot for the metro

I know its the ICON, but watching a huge storm getting absolutely shredded to pieces is fascinating From this: to this:

ANYONE LOOKING AT LAST 2 RUNS OF THE CMC?

I prefer to see SST's below 50 in the NYC area before even following winter events unless the setup in perfect. Right now, SST around 52 25 miles south of JFK. The pattern being perfect is much better if its after 12/20