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mikem81

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Everything posted by mikem81

  1. mikem81
    GFS gonna be north
  2. mikem81
    MJO always love your enthusiasm, but please dont post 10:1 maps as it was way off for this morning on the Hrrr. Kuchera only.. looks similiar for this storm other than the coast literally
  3. mikem81
    Watch out for meso models picking up early precip shield. Anything before 12Z is snow. Anything between 12Z-15Z is question mark. After 15Z looks like drizzle. Not a high potential event, but could be a nice little lead off event for Sat Night and Tuesday Night.
  4. mikem81
    Has anyone been tracking the EURO AI performance versus the regular model?
  5. mikem81
    Love your posts since you add insight and reasoning. Can you elaborate on the above? I think the -EPO will be fighting the SE and western Atlantic Ridge in this setup
  6. mikem81
    Northern stream has looked pretty different so far on the NAM, ICON and RGEM. It seems to drop down much more to the west and allows the southern stream to get some energy slightly out ahead before crushing it OTS
  7. mikem81
    About 100 mile movement in a better direction 96 hours out
  8. mikem81
    NAVY and JMA with significant moves NW with much more interaction
  9. mikem81
  10. mikem81
  11. mikem81
    Not getting a 150 mile shift in the next 12 hours
  12. mikem81
    Agreed. A primary dying out over WV almost always meant coastal redeveloped in ideal spot for us...maybe next weekend Miller A will be better
  13. mikem81
    I am not following anyone who think this is a storm for our area. I don’t even see any short term models disagreeing with the globals unless it’s over a half inch or zero. I really hope I am wrong but no model shows snow in Chicago today and nothing showing snow in NYC tomorrow other than virga right now. Hope the models are wrong but we should focus on next weekend
  14. mikem81
    fwiw sREF about 25-30 miles north at 21Z from 15Z
  15. mikem81
    Well see if NAM follows suit. NYC area needs a 50 mile shift at the 18Z and 0Z models to just stay in the game for the last minute north bumps tomorrow and sunday as inside 48 hours anything will be 25 miles or less
  16. mikem81
    If someone can show the timing and location of the confluence we should be watching for in terms of trends that would be great. Some analysis
  17. mikem81
    I think we are looking at the piece of energy near Montreal. Notice the difference between the GFS and Euro with the strength and location which shreds or doesnt
  18. mikem81
    Can you post it on the H5 map?
  19. mikem81
    What hours is this lobe forming and what do we look for in coming runs? we need some more analysis as opposed to wishful thinking
  20. mikem81
    Nope. Slower
  21. mikem81
    Never give up before the NAM is even in range...
  22. mikem81
    WFIW, the JMA at 72 also looks better than its prior run (which was already decent) with higher heights out east in front of the storm
  23. mikem81
    This was a good start to the 12Z lineup keeping in mind the normal trend on SWFE events is a north bump inside of 72 hours. I would want to be around 50 miles north of the heaviest snow axis at this point.
  24. mikem81
    I have no idea how this will play out but the ICON actually makes perfect sense. There is an area of Warm air advection precip that thumps the northern precip shield while a coastal takes over. There is a dry slot in between. Classis SWFE precip shield. Its just a matter of where the WAA makes it up to and where and when the coastal moves the energy to the coast.
  25. mikem81
    NAM can start to be used out to 60 hours or so for trends. Looks like tronger vort in the central US and less confluence than 6Z in SE canada
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