
mikem81
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Everything posted by mikem81
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NAM is a 48 hour model. Hours 48-84 are just for fun. Only use it for trends until at least 0Z or 6Z tommorrow....
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- heavy snow
- heavy rain
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Well need to wait a few mins for the pivotalweather mpas update....
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- heavy snow
- heavy rain
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Took close for comfort for Long Island....
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- heavy snow
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Id be worried about sleet along and SE of 95 if the track came so close....
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December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
mikem81 replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
Does Anyone have links to the EURO tellies? Would like to see what the real model has to say about the NAO, AO, PNA and EPO moving forward.... -
CMC and UKMET trended west from 0Z for weekend. Still need another 100-200 mile shift to be meaningful, but not impossible. Rather not look at the fantasy storm 8 days out and wet my pants for no reason this far out
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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
mikem81 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
you realize the 2016 number is extremely misleading.....most of it was one 30 incher... -
Might want to look at the UKMET
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The LP is really almost in a perfect position. Must be too much dry air, surprised precip field is so narrow on the models.
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We need a last minute 50 mile NW shift.... Only happens when we don't need it
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GFS looks pretty darn cold from 12/31 through end of the run. Lets see how long that look holds
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Good trends on AO and NAO
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Would much rather get the cutters in December. Even a BM track in early to mid December doesnt mean snow in the NYC metro..... After 12/20 is a different story. Lets hope the AO and NAO go negative after mid month.
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Also, why post the HRRR at all within 10 hours?
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Why post something that ends at 10Z when this is just turning over to snow for the NYC area?
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https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ny/new-york-city/okx/#
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Radar Looks OK for NYC, NE NJ and Western LI
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Tons of convection over the coast south of LI now. The storm will tilt NW to SE and its really impossible to know how wide the band or bands will be as the storms tilts and then slowly goes east..
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For NYC and LI this should still be going after 0Z
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16# 850 and 925's below zero already across NYC until about Suffolk southern shores.