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mikem81

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Everything posted by mikem81

  1. Right now Temp stuck at 31 here in Western nassau. DP up to 15 from 5 this morning. Cant get better pre snow spread than that this time of year
  2. We want the Low to basically stop south of Cape May and then occlude/weaken which would force everything east instead of north.
  3. Its hard to take you seriously with the "super weenie" title. We all know what you want to happen. Need to look at actual observations at this point and see what is going on with HRRR I find it encouraging that it is keeping the LP right on the coast of the CH Bay at 0Z tonight as opposed to 25 miles inland, but we shall see......
  4. I am also a Queens/Long Island guy. I know sleet all too well... In this setup you actually have the cold air bleeding in from the Northeast. Sleet might actually hit areas west of NYC before Long Island. Really all depends on the orientation of the upper level lows and exact track
  5. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1# Great site...
  6. You can see that around 4 of the members are too close to the coast near NJ and the others are in perfect position (excluding the 4 that are sun-tanning in bermuda) You
  7. Strange how the HP is coming in stronger each run (1039 on latest EURO) and in similar position yet the relatively weak LP just shoves north so easily....
  8. At this point, I would be very surprised if NYC broke 6 inches. Unless models back off on the amped track of the storm its some front end snow for 4-5 hours of snow and then sleet/rn and dry slot at this point.
  9. The only thing that can save the NYC Metro from mixing is if this is the most NW models go and they slowly go back SE given how much they have moved. Otherwise, the NW trend will continue and NYC will see 2-4 then some slush...
  10. Agreed on NAM usuallu over amping and also can change big time run to run, but yet very concerned.....
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