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mikem81

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Everything posted by mikem81

  1. mikem81
    The NAM makes so many changes run to run I wouldnt discount a 2-3 inch front end snow band in the area between 4pm and 8pm. The other models seem to all have it
  2. mikem81
    Identical if true. 12Z had .2
  3. mikem81
    Radar returns over the area already but we’ll see…
  4. mikem81
    At this point can’t you just compare to the current radar ??
  5. mikem81
    15z SREF increased once again
  6. mikem81
    GFS increased precip for tonigt. about .2 NYC .25 JFK
  7. mikem81
    12Z ICON north of 6Z
  8. mikem81
    Air doesn’t seem too dry. Dp is 21 here is middle of Nassau county. Not sure what dew points are north of here
  9. mikem81
    18Z NAM looking pretty terrible
  10. mikem81
    They were already .4 of precious at 15z. What are they up to?
  11. mikem81
    About .35 precip on both NAM and RGEM. EURO/GFS are essentially .1 though. Well see...
  12. mikem81
    Started out that way... Not sure the result will be much different.
  13. mikem81
    15Z SREF looks north again
  14. mikem81
    Yes both RGEM and Icon bumped slightly north. Maybe 25 miles or so. We’ll need a few more of those.. ideally we’d like to only need a 25 Mile north jog going into the event as these often end up slightly north of final modeling
  15. mikem81
  16. mikem81
    SREF mean for JFK went from .3 to .4 from 3Z to 9Z. Hopefully the better models will follow north
  17. mikem81
    It wasnt so north but i really was focusing on the strength and LP
  18. mikem81
    NAM well north at 12z but it sucked last night so we’ll see. Good trend though
  19. mikem81
    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=OKX-N0C-0-24-100-usa-rad
  20. mikem81
  21. mikem81
    This is our window
  22. mikem81
    only .1 falls after 6Z
  23. mikem81
    Looks like best precip is 0Z-6Z for the NYC metro. Mid-levels look good for first 3 hours. between 3Z-6Z is where NAM/GFS go to sleet and RGEM/EURO hang on to snow a bit longer...
  24. mikem81
    MJO: please no 10;1 maps for a SWFE
  25. mikem81
    GEFS is north of 6z and EPS similar to 6z which was pretty south of 0z
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