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mikem81

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Everything posted by mikem81

  1. mikem81
    GFS basically a miss with part 1....
  2. mikem81
    In my mind the sleet comes in as precip goes from heavy to lighter. If we sleet it means we got a good front end thump right before.
  3. mikem81
    I think its more dependent on where the first shot of precip sets up
  4. mikem81
  5. mikem81
    RGEM looks solid
  6. mikem81
    Regular GFS
  7. mikem81
    Here is GFSv16
  8. mikem81
    I would say Hi Res NAM is last at this point in time....
  9. mikem81
    In December Ocean Temps were 15 degrees warmer......Big difference this time of year
  10. mikem81
    It looks really good. still snowing at end of run and much colder..
  11. mikem81
    My point is with sleet close by we need to use both maps!! We are on the same team... Routing for snow..
  12. mikem81
    Please don't use 10:1 maps (although Kuchera on the NAM run is similiar
  13. mikem81
    No blocking. Dont see why this wont cut completely like Tuesday will....
  14. mikem81
    For the City and immediate burbs
  15. mikem81
    EURO all rain
  16. mikem81
    Agreed. The models have a new piece of energy Monday which prevents the trough from digging and keeps the artic boundary north as well and the Tuesday storm starts out too far north....
  17. mikem81
    Its not Snow....Better track offshre but something is forcing a lot of warming aloft...
  18. mikem81
    I believe the fact that models have picked up on an additional wave of precip for Monday has forced the trough to get stuck to the west of the area and keeps upper levels warm. The HP in canda still brings in colder air at the surface but not until Tuesday (as the very weak LP monday Monday ends up in the Lakes region and keep the flow aloft out of the SW).
  19. mikem81
    Difficult to comprehend what the models are spiting out. A weak LP is basically cutting into an artic banana high
  20. mikem81
  21. mikem81
    GFS is ugly. lots of FRZRN
  22. mikem81
    Impossible to tell what is going to do from there. It actually has 850's that are not to warm could be a secondary ready to develop (plus the NAM is always amped at 84).. The RGEM does it own thing with light precip basically coming in much earlier monday
  23. mikem81
    HP is much better placement (due north not exiting NE) and the LP dont have some members going into CHicago (western extent is Ohio)
  24. mikem81
    Much better placement than yesterday's 12Z run.. Yesterday Today
  25. mikem81
    Need the primary low to die off a bit sooner...
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