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mikem81

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  1. mikem81
    If the euro comes 50 miles west I’d actually take the NAM seriously as they’ve teamed up in prior miller A setups to trounce the gfs but I’m doubtful
  2. mikem81
    This is the surface map not upper levels. Don’t see this coming up the coast unless there is a late capture like Boxing Day or Jan 2022. Similar storms came up coast from florida and needed to get pulled back in. Really impossible to know if that can happen here
  3. mikem81
    To me this seems to be all of nothing. Either it gets captured just in time and comes up to Delmarva latitude or doesn’t and shunts east at NC
  4. mikem81
    Really just need the ULL to capture the souther stream and keep it at the coast longer. Some would call it a slight tug or yank
  5. mikem81
    18Z icon just your typical 100 mile shift every cycle
  6. mikem81
    Watch Bernie Rayno’s new video as it explains why this storm just isn’t going to come up the coast. Damn kicker pushing the ULL to form too far east and keep trough positively tilted. Not sure what JB is referring to as the ULL position seems to be obviously east
  7. mikem81
    Bernie Rayno had decent video. Essentially blaming the energy entering the west coast kicking the ULL formation east of yesterdays runs
  8. mikem81
    If someone can look at h5 from yesterdays 12z euro and compare to todays and somehow explain why the surface is so Much worse today is really appreciate it. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-fast&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025021512&fh=120 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-fast&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2025021612&fh=96
  9. mikem81
    The ULL actually appears to consolidate earlier at better on the more recent EURO runs. Don’t really understand how this is translating into the offshore results. I can see the GFS result with the ULL never really getting its act together until it’s too late but the EURO h5 seems weird to produce what it is showing
  10. mikem81
    any thoughts as to if the double low/convectiomoffshore is messing the LP track? We’ve had that inpast storms with the track from Savannah up the coast
  11. mikem81
    any thoughts as to if the double low/convectiom offshore is messing the LP track? We’ve had that in past storms with the track from Savannah up the coast
  12. mikem81
    06 12z
  13. mikem81
    Oy this is terrible. What a crazy let down last 24 hours
  14. mikem81
    The problem is this is by far the most NW of all models. Others need a 150-200 mile shift
  15. mikem81
    The map showing snow in PA and in New England is misleading. In reality almost all the snow there falls today so the storm for Thursday is still SE of the area. I’m hoping this trends NW as well but just pointing out the snow may includes totals to the north west and NE that are falling now
  16. mikem81
    I mean the snow in PA and NE
  17. mikem81
    Some snow is todays
  18. mikem81
    Thanks. What are we looking for over the next runs for clues on where this ends up? Is it really the position of the ULL that determines this
  19. mikem81
    Love your analysis and I check this forum from Long Island to see your posts. What are york thoughts for my area? You seems to think this will trend NW. what are we specifically looking for for the ULL and anything else the next few Runs?
  20. mikem81
    The sabbath. What can I do. Recommend everyone take 25 hours off at this point and check back after that period. It’s healthy
  21. mikem81
    I feel like we saw the famous windshield wiper effect today between 0z and 12/18z with the western and eastern extremes. I’m assuming 0z will be somewhere in between at least for the Euro
  22. mikem81
    Do you have the LP for the ensembles?
  23. mikem81
    The 6Z EURO (literally from 12 hours ago) and 12Z UK look pretty darn good
  24. mikem81
    Seems like the 0Z CMC and EURO and 12Z UKMET were actually crazy on the coast, like almost into NYC. Not sure a freak out is called for over the 18Z euro
  25. mikem81
    I missed the last 24 hours of models. Can someone please give me a brief rundown of where we stand? Seems like 0Z runs were great and then today everything fell apart except for the GEFS trending better as everything else trended worse?
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